| Titre | La formation des anticipations boursières | |
|---|---|---|
| Auteur | Georges Prat | |
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Revue | Economie et prévision |
| Numéro | no 112, 1994/1 | |
| Rubrique / Thématique | Variables financières et prévisions |
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| Page | 101-125 | |
| Résumé anglais |
Formation of Stock Market Expectations,
by Georges Prat.
This article analyzes how "experts" (businessmen, economists and bankers) form their expected changes in the industrial share price index. Expectations are measured by the "consensus" revealed by opinion polls made by J. Livingston in June and December of each year from 1956 to 1989.
After showing that these expectations are not in line with the general rationality criteria, an analysis is made of the classic adaptive, extrapolative and regressive expectation processes (based on limited past information for the variable studied). Although each of the three basic processes is invalidated when considered separately, it is shown that approximately 40% of the expected share-price changes can be "explained" by "combining" these three processes in a LIERAM (Limited Information, Extrapolative, Regressive and Adaptive Model), whereas the figure rises to 95% for expected inflation when using the same LIERAM.
These comparative results urge an examination of the hypothesis according to which experts' expectations are determined in the context of the share evaluation model (EM), which implicitly uses an expected value for share prices. The LIERAM and EM appear to be complementary, but together are only able to "explain" half of the stock market expectations. Source : Éditeur (via Persée) |
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| Article en ligne | http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/article/ecop_0249-4744_1994_num_112_1_5655 |
