| Titre | Le Nairu en France : les insuffisances d'une courbe de Phillips | |
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| Auteur | Florence Thibault, Yannick L'Horty | |
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Revue | Economie et prévision |
| Numéro | no 127, 1997/1 | |
| Page | 83-99 | |
| Résumé anglais |
The NAIRU in France: The Shortcomings of a Phillips Curve by Yannick L'Horty and Florence Thibault
The Phillips curve has long been the preferred instrument for explaining the link between wages and unemployment. Its implicit NAIRU level theoretically provides a valuable guide for economic policy in that it can be used to assess the respective opportunities of supply policy and demand policy. The article opens with a review of this relation's given bases and its main implications. It then discusses its shortcomings in a situation where the unemployment rate remains sustainably high and goes on to highlight the advantages of a wage curve representation in level. As an example, an evaluation of the French NAIRU is made based on a standard price- wage loop specified in terms of growth rates without an error correction term, i.e. in line with standard modeling practice. The NAIRU thus evaluated shows no upward trend since 1 970. As a linear combination of stationary variables, it is itself a stationary variable and fluctuates around a constant that by definition corresponds to the average level of actual unemployment. Consequently, no reliable measure of equilibrium unemployment can be found to satisfy Phillips' initial aim, which was to justify the intervention of economic policy. Source : Éditeur (via Persée) |
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| Article en ligne | http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/article/ecop_0249-4744_1997_num_127_1_5838 |
