The Multinational model Atlas.
Part two: international trade,
by Hervé Boniface, François Cellier, Olivier Davanne,
Ronan Le Berre, Michèle Mansuy.
The multinational model Atlas, developed at the "Direction de la prévision " (*). has been in use since Autumn 1 982 for forecasts and studies dealing with the international environment of France. It is made up of models for the nine major Oecd states described in issue 62 of "Economie et Prévision", linked by a trade model including a simplified representation of the other countries and areas of the world and to which this issue is dedicated.
The introductory description of the trade model and the main choices which went into designing it is followed by two sections on bilateral prices and market shares. Original features have been added to the usual models with a view to enhancing their explanatory value without detracting from the coherence of the system. This is done by determining bilateral coefficients for each trade flow to show the behaviour of the countries of origin and of destination.
A fourth chapter considers the subject of non petroleum imports. The various standard formulae were examined and a solution adopted which takes into account not only the effects of prices but also the range of lo weights of imports in the différents components of demand. The study led to the discarding of the capacity utilization rate variable since its effect on imports was not significant for most of the countries considered. The brunt of the effects of the economic cycle on demand for imported products seems to be attributable to stocks.
The model for petroleum trade flows —(petroleum is separate from other goods in the Atlas model)— is the subject of chapter five, which stresses the peculiar logic which governs this sector, imports being determined as the difference between consumption and exportations which themselves depend on the world oil market and production. The results obtained by studying different types of models for consumption are extensively developed in order to explain the choices which were made.
The final section concludes with an eleven-year simulation of the complete model, illustrating how it fits the sample period (1967-1979) and beyond, how it works right up to 1982.
(•) Economic Forecasting Services — Ministry of Finance.
The Multinational model Atlas. Part two: international trade, by Hervé Boniface, François Cellier, Olivier Davanne, Ronan Le Berre, Michèle Mansuy. The multinational model Atlas, developed at the "Direction de la prévision " (*). has been in use since Autumn 1 982 for forecasts and studies dealing with the international environment of France. It is made up of models for the nine major Oecd states described in issue 62 of "Economie et Prévision", linked by a trade model including a simplified representation of the other countries and areas of the world and to which this issue is dedicated. The introductory description of the trade model and the main choices which went into designing it is followed by two sections on bilateral prices and market shares. Original features have been added to the usual models with a view to enhancing their explanatory value without detracting from the coherence of the system. This is done by determining bilateral coefficients for each trade flow to show the behaviour of the countries of origin and of destination. A fourth chapter considers the subject of non petroleum imports. The various standard formulae were examined and a solution adopted which takes into account not only the effects of prices but also the range of lo weights of imports in the différents components of demand. The study led to the discarding of the capacity utilization rate variable since its effect on imports was not significant for most of the countries considered. The brunt of the effects of the economic cycle on demand for imported products seems to be attributable to stocks. The model for petroleum trade flows —(petroleum is separate from other goods in the Atlas model)— is the subject of chapter five, which stresses the peculiar logic which governs this sector, imports being determined as the difference between consumption and exportations which themselves depend on the world oil market and production. The results obtained by studying different types of models for consumption are extensively developed in order to explain the choices which were made. The final section concludes with an eleven-year simulation of the complete model, illustrating how it fits the sample period (1967-1979) and beyond, how it works right up to 1982. (•) Economic Forecasting Services — Ministry of Finance.
