An analysis of the desinfiationnary process, by Pierre Morin.
The success met by the desinfiationnary policies calls for a careful survey, which is conducted in this paper through the instruments of econometry (equations, models, simplified models).
The article deals with three différents items: it describes the main properties of the prices-wages links in the models; it carefully examines the results of various econometric works; it quantifies, whenever possible, the weight of the various possible causes of desinflation in France but also in the other Oecd countries, for the french case is partially specific. Precisions are given about all the difficulties met through the analysis, e g some unsatisfacotry aspects of the exploratory variables, questions about the long-terme properties, over-simplification implied by simplified models, which are, revertheless, the only instrument avoiding a complexity too great to be fully mastered.
Eventually, several conclusions can be reached: the article shows that imported inflation and desinflation cannot give enought evidence for a simulation of the real price movements. It also shows that the survey of an aggregated group of countries leads to a change in the weighing of the different causes that can be identified when studying a single country.
JEL. 132 - 122.211
An analysis of the desinfiationnary process, by Pierre Morin. The success met by the desinfiationnary policies calls for a careful survey, which is conducted in this paper through the instruments of econometry (equations, models, simplified models). The article deals with three différents items: it describes the main properties of the prices-wages links in the models; it carefully examines the results of various econometric works; it quantifies, whenever possible, the weight of the various possible causes of desinflation in France but also in the other Oecd countries, for the french case is partially specific. Precisions are given about all the difficulties met through the analysis, e g some unsatisfacotry aspects of the exploratory variables, questions about the long-terme properties, over-simplification implied by simplified models, which are, revertheless, the only instrument avoiding a complexity too great to be fully mastered. Eventually, several conclusions can be reached: the article shows that imported inflation and desinflation cannot give enought evidence for a simulation of the real price movements. It also shows that the survey of an aggregated group of countries leads to a change in the weighing of the different causes that can be identified when studying a single country. JEL. 132 - 122.211
