Contenu du sommaire : Élections françaises 2017 (1)

STILL NO MUMS FOR THE HEAVY VARIABLES OF VOTER TURNOUT IN FRANCE. FALL OF PARTICIPATION AND INCREASE OF ELECTORAL INEQUALITIES IN SPRING 2017. Building on the Voter Turnout Survey 2017 conducted by Insee, and consequently based on data integrity out of selection bias, self-selection or declaration, the authors show that the increase of abstention during the 2017 election cycle – real but relatively contained for the presidential election, dramatic for the parliamentary elections – doesn't lead to an equal voting process for all the citizens. On the contrary, the socio-demographic inequalities in participation have continued to rise during the last decade. There are first the result of inequalities in education. The continued relevance of the sociological model explaining the participation has been broadly confirmed.

Following the quantitative geography tradition, this paper analyzes the electoral dynamics of the 2017 French presidential election, using the polling-district level in French cities with more than 100,000 inhabitants (around 5,000 polling-districts in thirty-five cities). Using ecological correlations, this paper tries to understand the electoral space transformations between the 2012 and 2017, and the relationship between the electoral behaviors and the intra-urban social structures. A typology by ascending hierarchical classification is proposed, bringing to the fore seven kinds of electoral configurations related with different social contexts. The last part of the paper underlines the spatial variability of the statistical relations established between votes and social structures.

THE IMPACT OF GENDER ON THE VOTE  FOR MARINE LE PEN. The “Radical Right Gender Gap” refers to the greater reluctance of women to support these parties. It was obvious in the Jean-Marie le Pen era, much less since his daughter succeeded him. In the 2012 presidential election, all else equal, women voted for her in the same proportion than men. Then in the following mid-term elections, the gender gap reappeared and it disappeared again in the 2017 presidential election. This article tries to explain these variations by exploring the combined effects of gender, generational belonging, and personality traits on Le Pen votes, with data from the French Election Studies (1988-2017).

RUNNING TO STAND STILL . THE FRENCH LEFT WING/RIGHT WING CLEAVAGE IN 2017During a long time, the left/right cleavage has shaped the political identities of the French voters. But, the election of Emmanuel Macron and the historical drawbacks of the governing parties of the left and the right could have ended this way of taking side and defining oneself politically. In this article we test this possibility and mainly we question what does it mean to be on the left, on the right or elsewhere between the 1980's and 2017. To do so, the analysis take into account the traditional sociological variables and the values dimensions. We demonstrate that left and right has been profoundly transformed because of the oppositions on the cultural and socioeconomical values.

The three electorates of the right-wing primary election in France This article assesses the social and political motivations for mobilization during the French “Right and Centre” primary election of November 2016 through an exit-poll administered in seven departments of metropolitan France. Beyond the requirement that voters pay a fee to participate in this election, our survey emphasises the diversity of voters' motivations. Whereas some of them mobilized because of their proximity to the main right-wing party (“Les Républicains”) and its networks, others went to vote mainly owing to their social characteristics. The landslide victory of François Fillon in this election can be interpreted as a twofold ability to meet the expectations of this part of the right-wing electorate and to use local partisan networks.

CAMPAIGN DYNAMICS AND CANDIDATE SELECTION. THE FRENCH PRIMARIES OF THE RIGHT  AND THE CENTRE IN THE LIGHT OF LA BOUSSOLE PRÉSIDENTIELLE® (2016-2017) Drawing on a dataset collected through the online Voting Advice Application (VAA) of La Boussole présidentielle®, this article analyses the dynamics in the first ever primary election campaign of the French right and centre. Our analyses show that, in a context of substantial within-party polarization between candidates, François Fillon emerged as a middle-ground candidate between the relatively centrist Alain Juppé's and the more radical right-wing stances of Nicolas Sarkozy. The article also highlights the pre-eminence of François Fillon's image, and in particular his ability to appear “presidential” during the campaign, a major factor for his victory. Such conclusions emphasise the significance of campaign dynamics over policy issues in primary elections.

VOTES (REALLY) UNLIKE OTHERS? BLANK AND NULL VOTE'S PLURAL USES. In France, the elections of 2017 revealed a phenomenon considered for a long time as marginal by the electoral sociology: the “blank and null” votes. The object of this article is to deconstruct some prenotions about this gesture and to propose a new approach. So, the author analyses it not only as an answer to a determined political offer but, also, as a practice with plural uses and investments. Finally, he shows how these votes are the translation of relationships socially differentiated to politics and even to representative democracy.

THE OUTBREAK OF OPEN PRIMARIES AMONG LES REPUBLICAINS AND THE SOCIALIST PARTY IN FRANCE. BETWEEN THE WEIGHT OF THE PRECEDENT OF 2011 AND ORGANIZATIONAL TINKERING (2016-2017)The analysis deals with the process that leads to the adoption and the outbreak of open primaries in 2016 and 2017 in France. Within the context of the non-legitimization of the parties, different elements are at stake: structural factors, conjectural facts, a logic of mimetism and political intra-partisan conflicts. In both cases, Les Républicains and Socialist Party, the defeat of François Fillon and Benoit Hamon, who both don't succeed in qualifying for the second round, reminds us of the fragility of the primarisation of the French partisan system.

SPONSORSHIPS OF CANDIDATES  FOR THE FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. FOR WHOM DO THE ELECTED REPRESENTATIVES VOTE? For the first time in the history of the fifth Republic, the detailed results of the sponsorships for running to the presidential election have been publicized by the Conseil constitutionnel. This paper takes advantage of this data to understand the political behavior of this “French electoral college”. Its behavior is influenced by the proximity to the central power and party membership. It highlights also the fundamental role of mayors elected in the plentiful small rural municipalities for the number of candidates to presidency. Their behavior is influenced by their sociodemographic characteristics.