| Titre | L'horoscope des populations | |
|---|---|---|
| Auteur | Hervé Le Bras | |
 |
Revue |
20 & 21. Revue d'histoire Titre à cette date : Vingtième siècle, revue d'histoire |
| Numéro | no 1, janvier 1984 | |
| Rubrique / Thématique | Histoires de l'avenir, 1984 au rendez-vous d'Orwell |
|
| Page | 75-85 | |
| Résumé anglais |
The population horoscope, Hervé Le Bras
In this brief history of long-term demographic forecasts from the 17th century to the present, prediction seems both useless, for it is inaccurate, and essential, as it reveals the concerns of the time. Petty's economie arithmetic, Pearl's logistic laws, Glass's mathematical sophistication witness the refining of the methods. Yet the Future Population of Europe and the Soviet Union that a proud Princeton team published in 1944 describes the 1970 European horizon with margins of error exceeding 35 %, in spite of the new reliability of statistics. The post-war increase of the birth rate and the magnitude of population movements had not been suspected, because of the American researchers' obsession with the USSR's demographic imperialism : an admission of failure pregnant with lessons. Source : Éditeur (via Persée) |
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| Article en ligne | http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/article/xxs_0294-1759_1984_num_1_1_1767 |
