| Titre | Les sondages et l'élection présidentielle de 1965 | |
|---|---|---|
| Auteur | Jean Stoetzel | |
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Revue | Revue Française de Sociologie |
| Numéro | 1966, 7-2 | |
| Page | 147-157 | |
| Résumé anglais |
Jean Stoetzel : The presidential election and the polls.
The primary function of public opinion surveys at election times is not to provide a basis for forecasts, but to clarify the otherwise opaque results of the election. The outcome of the 5th of December vote was made possible (1) by a general and parallel decrease of the satisfaction with de Gaulle in all political categories (2) and by a shift of a fraction of the Gaullist supporters first toward indecision, later to opposition (mostly right ? centrist : Lecanuet) (3) during the campaign, there was but little increase in the left (Mitterrand) voting strength. The outcome of the run-off election (19th of December) is explained by two-thirds of the Lecanuet voters going back to de Gaulle, and more than four-fifth of the extreme right voters joining Mitterrand for strategic reasons. More generally, the poll data also show the importance of saliency, the role of the campaign, and establish the possibility of devising an empirical graded order of socio-demographic factors much in the guise of Paul Lazarsfeld's index of political predisposition. Source : Éditeur (via Persée) |
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| Article en ligne | http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/article/rfsoc_0035-2969_1966_num_7_2_1112 |
