| Titre | Une approche rétrospective de la prospective : "le scénario de l'inacceptable" | |
|---|---|---|
| Auteur | François PLASSARD | |
 |
Revue | Géocarrefour |
| Numéro | volume 77, no 2, 2002 | |
| Page | 197-214 | |
| Résumé anglais |
ABSTRACT Until now, prospective studies, designed to facilitate decision-making by looking a different future scenarios, have not been the subject of retrospective analysis aimed at understanding the errors of method or evaluation which might characterise them. By using certain criteria, a retrospective view enables the identification of various parameters judged important and others which have been discarded. This article looks at a prospective study which was particularly important in its time (An image of France in 2000 - a scenario of the inacceptable) undertaken by the DATAR in 1971. Sufficient time has elapsed since this study was completed to know the outcome. These conclusions may be drawn from this retrospective analysis. First, the methods used stronly condition the results : the 1960s were characterized by the conviction that it was possible to improve understanding of the future by detailed statistical analysis enabling both the possibilities for change to be identified. Second, these works are characterised by the dominant ideas of the period : two main currents of thought existed - one based on a marxist analysis to explain changes to the capitalist system, and the other attributing the Stat with the responsabilHy for orientating economic activity. Finally, although these studies were able to anticipate certain changes, they were incapable of predicting the major changes in the way of life which occured between 1970 and 2000. This raises the question of the extent to which policies, whatever their nature, can be based on such prospective studies. Source : Éditeur (via Persée) |
|
| Article en ligne | http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/article/geoca_1627-4873_2002_num_77_2_1571 |
