| Titre | Modèles à correction d'erreur et fonctions d'importations agrégées | |
|---|---|---|
| Auteur | Jean-Pierre Urbain | |
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Revue | Economie et prévision |
| Numéro | no 94-95, 1990/3-4 Aspects de la contrainte extérieure | |
| Page | 63-77 | |
| Résumé anglais |
Error Correction Models and equations for aggregate importations,
by Jean-Pierre Urbain.
In this paper we consider the empirical modelling of aggregate imports for two small open european economies (Belgium and the Netherlands). The analysis is conducted by means of recently developed econometric concepts. Among these we focus on the so called "general to specific" approach (see inter alia Hendry, 1987) in the context of data series whose (non) stationary properties are investigated. The notion of co-integration (Engle and Granger, 1987) of a set of variables is analysed, both in a single equation and in a multivariate framework. We allowed the data to play an important role in the dynamic specification but also the specification of the underlying long run equilibrium. Using co-integration techniques we derived long run estimates for Belgium and the Netherlands. For the latter country, the traditional hypothesis of price homogeneity was deary accepted in the long run but rejected for the short run dynamic. For Belgium, our results are more puzzling although multivariate co-integration along the lines of work of Johanson and Juselius (1990) led us to accept long run symmetry. Source : Éditeur (via Persée) |
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| Article en ligne | http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/article/ecop_0249-4744_1990_num_94_3_5178 |
