| Titre | Modèles de déséquilibre et échanges extérieurs : deux approches appliquées au secteur industriel français | |
|---|---|---|
| Auteur | Pierre-Alain Muet, Alain Gubian, Frank Amalric | |
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Revue | Economie et prévision |
| Numéro | no 94-95, 1990/3-4 Aspects de la contrainte extérieure | |
| Page | 129-140 | |
| Résumé anglais |
Disequilibrium models and external exchanges : two studies with applications to the
French manufacturing sector,
by Frank Amalric, Alain Gubian, Pierre-Alain Muet.
This paper analyses the respective impact of supply and demand on manufacturing production and foreign trade in two different ways. The first part presents an estimated global disequilibrium model for the manufacturing sector, taking into account the impact of foreign trade and inventory changes in the reduction of disequilibria between notional internal supply and notional internal demand. As an indication of disequilibria, the estimation procedure uses the percentage of firms which cannot increase their production because of a lack of equipment, skilled workers or raw materials (bottlenecks series drawn from the French quarterly business surveys). The second part presents an estimated disequilibrium model of the French manufacturing exports. Both models conclude that, since the first oil shock, price competitiveness and world demand remained the major factors explaining the evolution of industrials exports, even if the lack of production capacities may have constrained export growth during some periods of recovery. Source : Éditeur (via Persée) |
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| Article en ligne | http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/article/ecop_0249-4744_1990_num_94_3_5182 |
