| Titre | II- Comment se forment les anticipations d'inflation ? | |
|---|---|---|
 |
Revue | Economie et prévision |
| Numéro | no 99, 1991/3 | |
| Rubrique / Thématique | Analyses conjoncturelles Les anticipations des ménages dans les enquêtes de conjoncture de l'Insee |
|
| Page | 13-29 | |
| Résumé anglais |
II - How are price expectations determined?
by François Gardes, Jean-Loup Madre.
From qualitative answers to questions about perception and expectation of price growth, collected by INSEE from 40,000 households interviewed twice between 1972 and 1988, we propose four methods to quantify this information and construct models on expectative behaviour. The main results obtained are: (i) the rationality properties, which seem to be verified on aggregate data are no longer verified on individual data, (ii) both the adaptive and the regressive mechanism are well estimated on individual data, the later becoming more and more important over specific periods (for instance when a long-term trend is broken), (iii) the parameters of these two models are shown to depend mainly on the volatility of inflation, and to a smaller degree on its level: the hypothesis made by Allais and Friedman - Schwarz (1982) is thus positively tested on these data against the hypothesis made by Gibson (1972) and Cagan(1956). Source : Éditeur (via Persée) |
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| Article en ligne | http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/article/ecop_0249-4744_1991_num_99_3_5239 |
