| Titre | Vingt ans de prévisions macro-économiques : une évaluation sur données françaises | |
|---|---|---|
| Auteur | Pierre Morin, Pierre Malgrange, Catherine Doz, Carine Bouthevillain, Didier Borowski | |
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Revue | Economie et prévision |
| Numéro | no 99, 1991/3 | |
| Rubrique / Thématique | Analyses conjoncturelles |
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| Page | 43-65 | |
| Résumé anglais |
Twenty Years of Macro-Economic Forecasts : Analysis From French Data,
by Didier Borowski, Carine Bouthevillain, Catherine Doz, Pierre Malgrange, Pierre Morin.
This paper gives an idea of how accurate macro-economic forecasts have been over these past twenty years. The inaccuracy is most likely due to the degree of uncertainty that the analysis of behaviour regarding the past is inevitably responsible for. It can also be traced back to the difficulty in measuring quantities in public accounts. Lastly, it is due to the complex situations economists have had to deal with for over twenty years now. However, it does not appear that the level of inaccuracy has been higher over that period, 1975 having been a noteworthy example thereof. When compared with the accuracy rate of forecasts for other countries, France's forecasts are not bad. Source : Éditeur (via Persée) |
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| Article en ligne | http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/article/ecop_0249-4744_1991_num_99_3_5241 |
