| Titre | Les modèles de crise de change : un essai de synthèse en relation avec la crise du franc de 1992-1993 | |
|---|---|---|
| Auteur | Olivier Jeanne | |
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Revue | Economie et prévision |
| Numéro | no 123-124, 1996/2-3 Économie des taux de change | |
| Rubrique / Thématique | SME et crises de change |
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| Page | 147-162 | |
| Résumé anglais |
Exchange Rate Crisis Models: A Summary Focusing on the 1992-1993 French franc Crisis
by Olivier Jeanne
The purpose of this article is to provide a summary presentation and comparison of the exchange rate crisis mechanisms posited by economic theory; to identify the assumptions suggested by these mechanisms as to the origin of the 1992-1993 French franc crisis; and to compare them with the "stylised facts". We distinguish two theoretical approaches: speculative attack models and the "opt-out clause" approach. The speculative attack models focus the analysis on the phenomenon of the drain on exchange reserves when crises occur. The opt-out clause approach looks more at the reasons why monetary authorities choose to defend or not defend the currency when it is attacked. The opt-out clause approach makes the connection between the French franc crisis and certain fundamentals such as French unemployment and Germany's monetary policy. Moreover, the two approaches concur with the assumption that the French franc crisis was not caused by fundamentals, but was self-fulfilling. Source : Éditeur (via Persée) |
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| Article en ligne | http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/article/ecop_0249-4744_1996_num_123_2_5795 |
