| Titre | Cycles de la production industrielle : une analyse historique dans le domaine des fréquences | |
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| Auteur | Pierre Villa | |
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Revue | Economie et prévision |
| Numéro | no 137, 1999/1 | |
| Page | 95-108 | |
| Résumé anglais |
Industrial production cycles: a historical analysis of frequencies
by Pierre Villa
This paper uses the ARFIMA method to study industrial production cycles. We calculate monthly industrial production and unemployment rate data. We then filter them using "Holt and Winters" and then "Geweke and Porter-Husak" to find the long-run memory trend corresponding to a fractional degree of integration. We estimate the fluctuations, which are measured by the difference between the seasonally adjusted series and the long-run memory trend as measured by the inverse Fourier transform. No regular cycle is found. The first interpretation of this is that a "ratchet" effect is at work. The second interpretation is that the government has stabilised the economy using Keynesian policies since the Second World War. A third interpretation is that the observed random shocks are related to the real business cycle theory. Source : Éditeur (via Persée) |
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| Article en ligne | http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/article/ecop_0249-4744_1999_num_137_1_5949 |
