| Titre | L'auto-référence dans la théorie keynésienne de la spéculation | |
|---|---|---|
| Auteur | André Orléan | |
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Revue | Cahiers d'économie politique |
| Numéro | no 14-15, printemps-automne 1988 La Théorie Générale de John Maynard Keynes : un cinquantenaire | |
| Rubrique / Thématique | La « Théorie Générale » et les programmes de recherche keynésiens |
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| Page | 229-242 | |
| Résumé anglais |
At the heart of Keynes's theory of financial speculation in the General Theory is the idea that the speculator's expectation is essentially concerned with what the other operators will believe about prices of the Stock Exchange at the next period. This situation is self-referential to the extend that the expectations have to do with the market's own product, i.e. the average opinion of the agents and not with an exogeneous value — such as "the fundamental value". The consequence is that speculation shows special characteristics such as self-fulfilling prophecies, and an indeterminacy of equilibria. Keynes's understanding of these phenomena led him to abandon the traditional view whereby speculation plays a stabilizing role. Consequently he conducts a severe criticism of the agent's strategy always of seeking liquidity. In conclusion we demonstrate that there is a close link between Keynes's findings and those reached in modern studies of speculative bubbles (theory of rational expectations). Source : Éditeur (via Persée) |
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| Article en ligne | http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/article/cep_0154-8344_1988_num_14_1_1072 |
