| Titre | La fin d'un cycle ? : Perspectives 2018-2019 pour l'économie mondiale et la zone euro | |
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| Auteur | Département analyse et prévision, Éric Heyer, Xavier Timbeau | |
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Revue | Revue de l'OFCE (Observations et diagnostics économiques) |
| Numéro | no 155, février 2018 Perspectives économiques 2018-2019 | |
| Rubrique / Thématique | Prévisions |
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| Page | 15-169 | |
| Résumé anglais |
The end of the cycle? Global growth remained buoyant in 2017 especially in the advanced countries where GDP growth rose to 2.3%, up from 1.6% the previous year. Although there are still a few countries where GDP has not recovered to its pre-crisis level, this improvement will gradually erase the stigma of the Great Recession that hit the economy 10 years ago. The gradual return of the unemployment rate to its pre-crisis level and the closing of growth differentials, particularly in the United States and Germany, which had widened during the crisis, could herald a coming slowdown of growth. However, the factors that have supported growth will not generally be reversed. Monetary policy will remain expansionary and fiscal policy will be generally neutral and highly expansionary for the United States. We expect growth to continue in the industrialized countries and to accelerate in the emerging countries, bringing global growth to 3.7% in 2018 and to 3.5% in 2019. In the short term, the business cycle will not return.JEL classification: F01. Source : Éditeur (via Cairn.info) |
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| Article en ligne | http://www.cairn.info/article.php?ID_ARTICLE=REOF_155_0015 |
