| Titre | Partie I. Coup de frein sur la croissance : Perspectives 2019-2021 pour l'économie mondiale et la zone euro | |
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| Auteur | , Éric Heyer, Xavier Timbeau | |
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Revue | Revue de l'OFCE (Observations et diagnostics économiques) |
| Numéro | no 162, avril 2019 Perspectives économiques 2019-2021 | |
| Rubrique / Thématique | Prévision |
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| Page | 17-165 | |
| Résumé anglais |
Brakes on growth Since the Great Recession of 2009, the global economy first went through a rebound phase – in 2010 and 2011 – and then grew at an average annual rate of 3.3% between 2012 and 2017. The acceleration observed in 2017, when global GDP grew by 3.5% due in particular to the late recovery in the euro zone, gave rise to hopes for a more long-term growth rate that would make it possible to absorb the imbalances inherited from the crisis, such as unemployment and the public debt. The slowdown in activity seen in the first half of 2018, with a further deceleration towards year end, heralds a less favourable scenario. Trade tensions, the difficult Brexit negotiations, the slowdown in Chinese growth and the application of new standards in the automotive sector have put the brakes on the momentum for growth, which fell back to 3.3% in 2018. Many cyclical surveys indicate that this trend will continue in early 2019. Some more alarmist indicators, such as the trend in the US yield curve, suggest an increased likelihood of a recession1. Yet, beyond the obvious climate of uncertainty, many factors are still boosting activity and preventing the outbreak of a recessionary spiral. Despite the lack of international coordination, many countries will benefit from expansionary monetary policy and / or fiscal policy. Thus, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are delaying the normalization of their monetary policy. In the United States, the Federal Reserve's support for GDP will be reduced, but monetary policy should not become restrictive. On the fiscal policy side, many governments – in the euro zone, the United States and also among the emerging countries – will adopt measures to boost the economy at least for 2019.JEL classification: F01. Source : Éditeur (via Cairn.info) |
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| Article en ligne | http://www.cairn.info/article.php?ID_ARTICLE=REOF_162_0017 |
