| Titre | Partie II. France : croissance épargnée : Perspectives 2019-2021 pour l'économie française | |
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| Auteur | , Éric Heyer, Xavier Timbeau | |
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Revue | Revue de l'OFCE (Observations et diagnostics économiques) |
| Numéro | no 162, avril 2019 Perspectives économiques 2019-2021 | |
| Rubrique / Thématique | Prévision |
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| Page | 167-244 | |
| Résumé anglais |
France: growth spared With growth subdued at 1.6%, the year 2018 showed the fragility of the French economic recovery, whether this was due to the rapid deterioration of the external environment or to internal dynamics, including a tax calendar that penalized purchasing power at the beginning of the year and the "yellow vests" crisis, which held down consumption at year end. In 2019, growth was boosted by a strong increase in purchasing power (+2.5%), due to socio-fiscal measures (nearly €12 billion**) and the significant hike in real wages with the exceptional bonus and the slowdown in inflation. Consumption, though dynamic (+1.6%), was mired in a context marked by numerous uncertainties related to both the social crisis and the outcome of Macron's Great Debate; the savings rate should rise to 15.1% in 2019, 0.9 percentage points higher than the 2013-2018 average. With high profitability, favourable financing conditions, a high capacity utilisation rate and an expected rebound in consumption, business investment should benefit from fair winds in 2019 (+3%). The case is otherwise for household investment, which should fall slightly (-0.2%). Marked by the slowdown in world demand (which will be amplified in case of a “hard Brexit” or intensified trade tensions), the growth of French exports should decelerate in 2019. The fiscal stimulus targeted at the middle classes should boost the consumption of both domestic output and imports. Fiscal policy alone should give growth a 0.5 GDP point lift, of which 0.3 percentage points is attributable to the Economic and Social Emergency Measures Act. In the end, driven by accelerating domestic demand while also factoring in a negative contribution from foreign trade, GDP should rise by 1.5% in 2019. With GDP growth of 1.4% in 2020, the year should witness the country's return to its potential growth rate. While rising household consumption (+1.6% in 2020) should benefit from lagging purchasing power, external demand is likely to remain sluggish. In 2021, with a restrictive fiscal policy and an expected rise in the euro, growth should be in line with potential growth, at 1.2%. This scenario is dependent on future adjustments, such as the complete overhaul of France's housing tax and any changes arising from the Great Debate. With slower growth, fewer jobs will be created than in 2017-2018. The labour market will be marked by the conversion of the CICE tax credit into lower social contributions and tax exemptions on overtime. The unemployment rate should fall from 8.8% currently to 8.7% by end 2019, 8.5% at end 2020 and 8.4% at end 2021. With the transformation of the CICE, the deficit will rebound to 3.1% of GDP, then 2% in 2020 and 1.5% in 2021. The budget trajectory will also depend on the decisions taken at the end of the Great Debate.JEL classification: F01. Source : Éditeur (via Cairn.info) |
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| Article en ligne | http://www.cairn.info/article.php?ID_ARTICLE=REOF_162_0167 |
