| Titre | Post-Congress China : New era for the country and for the world | |
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| Auteur | Michel Aglietta, Guo Bai | |
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Revue | Revue de l'OFCE (Observations et diagnostics économiques) |
| Numéro | no 164, décembre 2019 Dossier. International macroeconomics | |
| Page | 111-138 | |
| Résumé anglais |
China is on the right track for undertaking ambitious reforms announced at the 19th congress. Growth strengthened in 2017 amidst fiscal tightening and prudent monetary policy, though the trade war entailed temporary disturbances in late 2018. The shift from quantitative to qualitative growth in the coming “New Era” does not depend on present geopolitical uncertainties in its orientation. The long-term restructuring of the economy that is investigated in this article, including the project for a new paradigm of globalization to 2050, can be read without worrying too much on the vagaries of present US policy.China enters a new era because the main contradiction that drives development has changed. The former contradiction was the scarcity of goods and services produced in the economy, which entailed poverty and required enforced industrialization to get people out of it. Since moderate prosperity is to be achieved, the main contradiction lies in the imbalances generated by past and present development.Promoting the quality of growth aims first and foremost at reaching the technological frontier through innovation (digital economy, new energies and networks). It aims also at restructuring cities to achieve a harmonized urban/rural development in rethinking mobility. Migrants between countryside and cities should be able to carry their social rights.To achieve its promise of prosperity in the socialist economy, the core reform on the demand side is centralizing social security, unifying retirement regimes and reforming the tax system to reduce the disparities between regions. Public goods must be delivered all over the countries through taxes and transfer mechanisms, so that less-favored regions are not forced to indulge in excessive indebtedness to provide the common goods and services that people are entitled to use.The “New Era” has also a worldwide dimension. Recovering great power status under the full restoration of the Middle Empire for the 100th anniversary of the foundation of the People's Republic of China is an ambition to be fulfilled in restructuring the world economy according to the mammoth project “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR). It intends to be a new concept of globalization.OBOR opens opportunities to recipient countries that are infrastructure-constrained, because their lack of public goods is undermining their development. Conversely, it is the right platform to push China's soft power across Eurasia with strengthening economic linkages through trade, capital flows and construction deals. The OBOR initiative will succeed with Asian integration, since China will become the first world economic power before 2030. It is why the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) complements OBOR. Source : Éditeur (via Cairn.info) |
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| Article en ligne | http://www.cairn.info/article.php?ID_ARTICLE=REOF_164_0111 |
