Contenu du sommaire

Gilles Andréani, The War Against Terrorism: Uncertain and Costly Successes
Al-Qaeda's failure was inevitable given the lack of realism of its objectives. It was accelerated by the “war on terror” launched by the Bush Administration, the international cooperation led by Washington and the destruction of Al-Qaeda's “headquarters” in Afghanistan. However, the failure in Iraq and the stalemate of the intervention in Afghanistan show another side of this war, with its financial, political and moral costs that no doubt follow from having overestimated the threat.

Guido Steinberg, Al-Qaeda, 2011Revolutions in the Arab world are a defeat for Al-Qaeda, which has already been weakened by ten years of war against terrorism. But while Al-Qaeda may be in a state of crisis, it is far from having surrendered, and has demonstrated remarkable resilience, linked to its decentralization strategy in Iraq, North Africa, the Arabian Peninsula and even in Europe, where a “leaderless jihad” seems to have emerged.

Gérard Chaliand, Guerrillas and Terrorism
Guerrillas and partisan wars were first waged against colonial powers, before becoming revolutionary wars during the second half of the 20th century. Today terrorism involves both public relations and ideology, backed by the rise of radical Islam. It nevertheless remains limited, despite the “global war” launched by the George W. Bush's Administration. The war of attrition in Afghanistan is more complex.

Andrew M. Exum, Hearts and Minds in Afghanistan: Why Victory is so Illusive
The counter-insurgency campaign seeks to create a space for the development of political solutions leading to peace. The means granted to Afghanistan have been weakened by the priority given to Iraq. Pakistani support for Afghan insurgents continues. The weakness of the Afghan government prevents it from distributing and fully exploiting international aid effectively. All these problems largely explain the failure in creating circumstances conducive to ending the war.

Hew Strachan, Can European Armies only Fight Limited Wars?
For a long time, Western armies were organized to fight total war. Since the end of the Cold War, they have been reduced, but have been engaged in conflicts requiring large deployments. European societies no longer know what type of war they have to conduct. Indeed the very concept of limited war and its instruments need to be rethought.

Marion Guillou, Towards an Ambitious but Renewed Common Agricultural Policy
Several factors are making it compulsory to rethink the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), including demographic, climate and environmental change. The renewal of the CAP should lead to stable incomes for farmers and prices of agricultural products, as well as to a better accounting of global public goods like climate and biodiversity. “Green” innovation must also be fostered.

Marek Sawicki, A Polish View of the Common Agricultural Policy as a Factor for Integration
Poland has considerably modernized its agriculture through financial support from the European Union, which it joined in 2004. The CAP, which limits are henceforth blatant, must be reformed. The changes put forward by the Commission are not sufficient and some Member States must be more cooperative, setting aside electoral considerations. Everyone has an interest in seeing the CAP be simplified and more productive.

Pierre H. Boulanger, How to Reform the Common Agricultural Policy and the EU Budget
Since the Treaty of Rome set out the objectives of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), the dynamics in Europe and changes in the international environment have constantly made these issues more complex. The CAP has without doubt come to the end of a cycle based on price support. A new paradigm needs to emerge rapidly, to be implemented as of 2014. The result of multilateral negotiations could accelerate ambitious CAP reform.

Vincent Darracq, Power Games in Africa: Nigeria, South Africa and the Crisis in Ivory Coast
Behind the scenes of the crisis in Ivory Coast, a diplomatic struggle has been taking place between Nigeria, which immediately supported Alassane Ouattara, and South Africa, which was more ambivalent towards Laurent Gbagbo. The positions of Nigeria, which heads the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), finally prevailed and opened the way for the French intervention that led to the arrest of Gbagbo by forces loyal to Ouattara.

Anand Menon, Much Ado about Nothing – European Defense Policy after the Lisbon Treaty
The Lisbon Treaty was meant to provide Europe with new capacities in terms of foreign policy and defense. Yet it has not resolved some major issues Europe is facing, including coherence between institutions, questions of military capacity, and above all the lack of unity of purpose stemming from the divergence of national policies. The Union can henceforth only move forward by redefining its limited ambitions, according to its wishes and means.

Denise Flouzat-Osmont d'Amilly, Europe and the Evolution of the Chinese Model
The revival of the Chinese economy in 2008 has led to a renewed dominance of State capitalism and a shift in focus to domestic consumption. China is outward-looking and protectionist, and is henceforth a major player in the international financial system. In this context, Europe must obtain clearer reciprocity, but may also benefit from Chinese financial strength.

Benoît Michel, Robust Peacekeeping: the Case of UNIFIL Plus
Since 2006, the United Nations has deployed a “reinforced” UNIFIL in Lebanon, politically – the maintenance of peace has become “robust” – and militarily. This stronger deployment has allowed the peacekeepers to act effectively. But the status quo is fragile, and the capacity of the international force to act depends on the evolution of the political situation. The latter is crucial, as the military cannot solve political problems.

Daniel Göler and Mathias Jopp, Germany, Libya and the European Union
Germany's abstention on Resolution 1973 by the UN Security Council derives from the very fundamentals of its foreign policy. Nevertheless, during the Libyan crisis the EU has shown its capacity to adopt common policies on sanctions in the humanitarian field, with German involvement. The development of the EU's security and defense policy can only be built around low-intensity military missions, and agreement between Paris and Berlin.

Marie-Claire Considère-Charon, Views of the Irish Crisis
The 2007 crisis, worsened by the housing bubble and the excesses of the Irish banking system, has badly struck Ireland, a country previously known for its economic success. Hence the harsh austerity plans, outside surveillance of the country and the political change at the last legislative elections. Recovery will take a long time and room for maneuver is limited. This also seems to be borne out by renewed emigration, which was thought to be a thing of the past.