Contenu du sommaire : Les guerres de demain

Rethinking War and Peace in the XXIth Century
War between great powers seems to be a thing of the past. Between developed States, this change heralds an era of postmodern conflicts which bypass armed confrontation. Other conflicts, brought about by the fragmentation and reformation of political spheres, are linked to pre-modern wars waged by warlords. But in general, wars are becoming scarcer. Are we heading for a time of peace in which conflicts might be kept under the military confrontation stage?

The Silence of Weapons or Inconvenient Peace
There are fewer wars and they have fewer casualties. This statement is supported by multiple, well-founded statistical analyses. It is explained most notably by the pacifying role played by the States in the post-cold war period. Despite this, the common preconceptions of an unstable and dangerous world are hard to shake. For various reasons, the realists, liberals and anti-globalists refuse to recognise this reality and perpetuate the stereotype of a planet on the edge of destruction.

The Perpetual Cycle of War
The world of conflicts and confrontations is not homogenous; it juxtaposes different spaces, types of logic, and actors. Currently, there is no transnational discourse or power that seems able to regulate these conflicts. Their causes remain manifold, the number of players who are liable to put pressure on the international framework is increasing, and the powers that be are only just managing to control the array of potential confrontations. The world of conflicts in the XXIth century will be both familiar and unprecedented.

The Future of UN Peacekeepers
By 2014 the UN will be the number one military force in terms of operations conducted. The UN comes under various criticisms such as the endless operations fossilized in the international landscape and the huge and seemingly endless financial outlay of the UN's deployments in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Darfur. Yet why is it that military powers remain aloof, that one in three UN peacekeepers comes from South Asia? Is the UN's peacekeeping method outdated? But who could possibly be up to taking the reins from the United Nations?

Wired for War: What the Robotics Revolution Means and What to Watch for Next
We are just at the very beginning of the revolution in warfare brought about by robotics. Automatic arms are easier to use, are more autonomous and the range of their applications is widening. But these instruments raise many questions: they can be turned against the original user, and they create problems with doctrine and strategy. They also give rise to legal issues and cause us to question the relationship between government and electorate with regards to the act of war.

Occupying Without Invading: Drones and Strategy
Drones have been in use for around 50 years, but have developed rapidly since 2001, the year of the first operational armed drone flight. Their swift progress has opened up new strategic horizons. In particular, drones allow “aerial occupation of the ground” whilst minimizing risks and losses for the offensive force. Their use, however, does not only present advantages and political decision makers would be wrong to make light use of them.

Legality and Legitimacy of Armed Drones
Armed drones are regarded as illegal in the eyes of international humanitarian law. In reality, they are simply new instruments of war, operated at greater distance from the opponent and which permit more discriminating attacks than traditional arms. Their increasing autonomy raises many questions which must be taken into account by new international regulations.

Nigeria and the Trial of Islam
Nigeria is the country with the sixth largest Muslim population. The demographic growth of Muslim populations could mean they are in the majority by 2030. Contrary to what most news agencies purport to be true, the implementation of Sharia in parts of the North is not a recent phenomenon. What is more, the likelihood that the terrorist activity of groups such as Boko Haram will become a veritable civil war is slim.

Algeria's Strategy for the AQIMAlgeria's strategy regarding Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is built on the heritage of the civil war of the 1990s. It consists of engaging in armed combat with the most radical terrorist groups and holding out a hand to the moderates who are likely to put down their arms. Alger has tried to apply this mixture of repression and dialogue in the Malian crisis. Ansar Dine's double dealing led Algerian authorities to help French military intervention.

Climate Change and Food Security in the Arab World
Climate change and hydro-agricultural stress combine with social, economic and political challenges in the Arab-Muslim world to create a high rate of instability, a situation which manifests itself in many different local variations. The “determinists” believe a critical threshold has been breached, giving a negative forecast. Others think that human action is still able to reverse the situation, but this would require drastic changes made by the States and the societies in this region.

The growth of tax havens is a part of the process of economic globalization. But its very definition is a geopolitical issue, hence the variable lists according different bodies. Each power functions within its own franchise zone. The need to cut terrorist financing and then the 2008 economic downturn, both reinforced the need for strict safeguards: international forums and civil societies are beginning to move on this issue.