Contenu du sommaire : Élections françaises 2012 (2)

The economy and the vote in 2012. An election of crisis?
The 2012 French presidential election has been framed by economic issues. This paper assesses the impact of the perceptions of economic conditions on voting decisions for this election. Building firstly on the concept of retrospective sociotropic economic voting, we show that the impact of economic conditions is statistically significant but with a limited power of explanation. Looking secondly at the link between economic attitudes and voting decisions, we find stable patterns comparable to previous results. Yet, public debt appears for the first time as a vector of issue voting. In total, the limited negative impact of economic conditions on the support for Nicolas Sarkozy has been partially compensated by the emergence of the issue of budgetary orthodoxy.

A campaign effect. The decline of anti-nuclear opinions among French citizens in 2011-2012This article analyzes a paradoxical effect of the 2012 presidential campaign: the rise of public support for nuclear energy production less than a year after the Fukushima-Daishi disaster. Based on analyses of survey data, media coverage and party manifestos, this article shows at the macro and micro-level that this rise of public support is led by a strong mediatization of the nuclear issue, its unprecedented party politicization, and its reframing by the mainstream conservative party and the pronuclear interest groups – in terms of economic efficiency rather than risks. These results allow us to draw several conclusions regarding campaign effects, connexions between individual positions and party identification, as well as media impact on political competition.

To split or not to split. The European issue and its (disturbing) effects in the 2012 French presidential election What role did the European challenge play in the domestic policy programmes and in voter choice during the 2012 French presidential election? Using three different datasets (manifestos, campaign speeches and the Cevipof post-electoral opinion poll), our results unveil the disturbing impact of the European issue. The candidates' speeches show a double focus of denouncing and politicizing (revealing a left-right structure opposing welfare state/sovereign state) which echoes citizens' worries. The bi-dimensionality of attitudes towards Europe is confirmed. As these two dimensions do not have the same influence on electoral behavior, our results suggest that the question of the role of European integration in the emergence of a new political cleavage should not be buried too quickly.

Candidates matter in parliamentary elections. France as a least likely case study
Built on an in-depth analysis of the existing scientific literature, the article underscores the necessity to study whether or not candidate' evaluation by voters affects voting behavior – i.e. the candidate effect hypothesis – and particularly in the case of the French parliamentary elections, a least likely case study. Evidence drawn from a survey dedicated to this purpose during the parliamentary elections of June 2012 supports the hypothesis of a candidate effect in France, which has to be added to the explanatory factors usually used in the scientific literature. Beyond partisanship and ideology, candidates matter when citizens vote in parliamentary elections.

Seeking French votes in north America. The campaign for the 2012 legislative election in the first constituency for French residents overseas The election of eleven deputies representing the French nationals living outside France was one of the main novelties of the 2012 French legislative elections. By analysing the electoral campaign in the first constituency for French residents abroad (Canada and the United States) this article highlights the specific constraints which overseas candidates had to face. It shows that the ways in which candidates in North America tried to mobilise voters were profoundly affected by factors such as the size of the constituency, the weakness of French political parties' organisation outside France or their poor knowledge of the expatriates' characteristics and expectations. The article also demonstrates that through their campaign activities they participated in defining principles that would henceforth shape the realm of French politics in North America.

The political parties in Morocco. A polarized microcosm?
Using an original investigative protocol and a data base of 4,127 national delegates from ten Moroccan political organizations, surveyed between 2008 and 2012, this article examines the characteristics of party members in Morocco. Initial results indicate that the field of Moroccan political parties is a small world dominated by city dwellers, mature men, and the most highly educated, wealthiest individuals. However, far from being isolated from ordinary citizens, there are social dynamics at work. While it cannot be reduced to a segmented clientele, it is, nonetheless, shaped by an ideal-typical opposition between parties of notables and parties of activists.