Contenu du sommaire : Ukraine : premières leçons ? Kurdistan(s)

Kurds and the State Option
The Kurds in Iraq occupy what is practically a state. The Syrian civil war has resulted in the autonomization of the country's Kurdish population. To Kurdish advantage, the JDP's ambiguous policy has cleared a new political space in Turkey. The development of entities that are almost states has not, however, led to the constitution of a unique political space. It remains fragile and divides Kurds into separate zones just as much as it unites them through a common political goal.

Turkey: The Kurdish Movement in the “Peace Process”While the peace process between the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party) and the Turkish government is at a standstill, the latter is attempting to circumvent Turkey's Kurdish actors by aligning itself with the KDP (Kurdistan Democratic Party), which dominates the Kurdish regional government in Iraq. But the organizations which make up the Kurdish movement in Turkey have their roots in the Turkish political sphere itself, and therefore cannot be marginalized from negotiations.

What Kurdish Policy Will the JDP Adopt?
The emergence of an autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan, the civil war in Syria, and the electoral ambitions of the JDP have led to new policy being formed by the Turkish government regarding the Kurdish question. However, while the different Kurdish zones communicate through cross-border processes between Turkey, Iraq and Syria, the JDP has to make a choice between the nationalist fringe of its voters and an attempt to forge closer ties with the Kurdish population in South-East Turkey.

The Paradoxes of the Kurdish Spring in Syria
Although the Kurdish population in Syria forms a very small and highly divided minority, the Kurds nevertheless have managed, thanks to the civil war, to gain relative autonomy in Northern Syria. Complex regional restructuring and endless rivalries between Kurdish parties have not prevented a relative unification of the diverse Kurdish areas in Turkey, Syria, and Iraq. However, the Kurdish question remains marginalized in the political processes which are attempting to bring an end to the Syrian conflict.

Iraqi Kurdistan's Unclear Borders
Since 1991, Kurdish parties have dominated and administered “Iraqi Kurdistan”. This autonomy poses numerous problems for Baghdad, including the distribution of roles in the exploitation and commercialization of crude oil. Above all, the limitations of Iraqi Kurdistan, which is run like a state, are not clearly defined. Within the contested areas there are confrontations between community logic and administrative divisions: military and administrative borders in practice and in law do not correlate.

The Russian-Ukrainian Conflict Seen from Kiev
Moscow has every intention of including Ukraine in its Eurasian Union, with one major playing card: the exchange of Kiev's sovereignty for economic and financial advantages. Aside from what happened in Crimea, it is now the very integrity of the country that is at stake, as well as the balance across Europe more generally. Dialogue is still possible, but this assumes that Russia is prevented from unilaterally imposing its will on Ukraine.

Why Russia and the EU Should Cooperate in Ukraine
Ukraine is divided along historical, ideological, economic, religious and linguistic lines, which it has failed to unite in its brief history. Its current instability, largely due to the stagnancy of the politico-economic situation, had been exacerbated by external pressures from Russia, Europe and America. Dialogue with the European Union based on realistic foundations is the only route which will allow the country to develop while keeping in harmony with Russian interests.

The Ukrainian Crisis or the European Misunderstanding
The crisis in Ukraine seems at first to be the result of the impact of two misunderstandings of Russian and Western approaches. Yet it is also the product of interrupted communication between Moscow and the West, and specifically the EU, notably since 2008 and the Georgian crisis. Reopening dialogue between these two actors will only be fruitful if each side takes the other's unique historical and cultural specificities into consideration.

Country Risk Analysis: More than a Postmodern Discipline
Methodological debates about the stages of growth and the way in which a country goes through political modernization are long-established and manifold. Globalization and the new international dialectic that it has brought about, between tension that leads to convergence and tension that leads to divergence, have called many of these methods of evaluation into question. Aside from elaborating the most objective criteria possible, the formalization of future possibilities should leave the way open for uncertainty and a subjective approach.

The Nagging Problem of State Insolvency
Historically, states have indebted themselves to finance military campaigns. They do so nowadays for other reasons such as financing productive investment. The state is not a debtor like any other: in the instance of payment default, their creditors may have great difficulty recovering funds. The measure of sovereign risk is therefore a crucial issue with necessitates political, economic and financial expertise.

Peace as War's Goal: A Slow Rediscovery
According to the traditional notion of the just war, an armed conflict should lead to conditions of durable peace. Following the 19th century which championed pure victory on the battlefield, the 20th century rediscovered, especially since the threat of atomic warfare, the political dimension of war. Based on this realization, today's states – members of the European Union in particular – are positioned to bring about conditions for “durable security”.

Strategy in Theory
The term “strategy” goes back to Greek antiquity and its meaning has evolved over time. Although today the term is bandied about and employed in all contexts, in the past, attempts to define it have been made by the greatest military thinkers. They agree that strategy presupposes an end point and an opponent. In order to reach one's goal, despite the actions of one's opponent, the strategist must have full freedom of action and demonstrate a keen capacity for adaptation.

Relations between the Holy See and the People's Republic of China
The Catholic Church in China is divided into two branches: one is encompassed within the Communist Party and is largely independent of Rome; the other comes under the Pope's authority and is tormented by Beijing's government, which entirely rejects its authority. The replacement of Benedict XVI by Francis has raised hopes that relations between the Apostolic See and China will improve. However, it is likely that the new Pope will show the same firmness as his predecessor with regard to Beijing.