French industry in international exchanges
by Jean Mathis and Jacques Régniez.
In the 70 s, French industry achieved globally positive results in international exchanges. This success was accompanied by re-orientations which modified both the sectoral structure of France's industry and the insertion of each sector in the international division of labor. How could we characterize the overall outcome of these re-orientations ? In the opinion of the authors, it would at any rate be inadequate to judge the evolution in the «international specialization» of French industry only on the basis of shifts in the hierarchy of sectors. Their main idea is that a country improves its international specialization if such specialization tends to increase the purchasing power of its nationals thanks to durable gains in the terms of trade.
However, observation of gains in the terms of trade alone over a given period does not authorize our jumping at conclusions in favor of an improvement in international specialization Furthermore, we must take into account the bases of these gains : are they due to a mere commercial advantage or to a technological advance ? First conducted at the macro- sectonel level, the analysis leads us to an explanation of gains achieved over the past decade in the terms of industrial trade by a growing commitment in the domain of traditional capital equipment, by dismvol- vement with respect to most of the consumer goods and, despite some strong points, by overall lags in the French data processing and electronics industries. In a second step, the analysis, conducted on forty-tour industrial sectors further enable the authors, when observing the shifts m the terms of trade, to classify these sectors in three groups : those for which gams in the terms of trade actually reveal a loss of competitiveness, those in which competitiveness seems assured thanks to profitability transfers from the domestic market to the international markets and, finally, those in which French industry enjoyed good initial commercial positions. Without denying such commercial success and such benefits as France has derived from these sectors, the authors consider that French industry still has a long way to go before its industrial specialization can be established on a definitely firm technological foundation.
French income tax model : Mir 4 by Antoine Coutière, Christian Pontagnier, William Godderidge. The income tax model presented in this article is the fourth model of this type elaborated at the Direction de la prévision (Forecasts Division) over the past fifteen years or so Its methodology is therefore stabilized : on the basis of the latest representative sample of 40.000 households liable for income tax (1975 Inséé —Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques— survey on incomes) it is possible to work out tax forescasts and simulations for the current year and coming years. The size of the sample enables us to give reliable indications on the distribution of the tax and the cost of new measures, in terms of a great many criteria such as social and economic category, age, size of the family, nature and level of income. After the analysis of the statistical distribution of the tax (objet of Part I) the article illustrates the other chief possibilities for.using the Mir 4 model Part II is devoted to its projectional application to years more recent than the year of the survey. Finally, the last part studies the result of simulations of taxation provisions which are alternatives to those in force under existing legislation.
