The Copain model: patrimonial behaviours and financial integration, by Mario Dehove, Alain Fauqueur, Jean-Philippe Gaudemet, Michel Husson, Jean Mathis, Guy de Monchy, Dominique Vallet.
Copain, an econometric model of the french economy, built by the research Bureau of the forecasting department (Ministry of economic and finance) is used since spring 81 for short and medium term policy simulation, jointly with more specific models (concerning taxes, government spending, social security system... ).
While updating previous well known analyses for many relationships, the Copain model proposes a new interpretation of recent macroeconomic developments, with a special accent on the sources and the consequences of the.inflationary process, and with a codetermination of physical, nominal and financial variables. The price level is no longer explicitly derived from a cost-push mechanism ; implicitely calculated, it stands for the ad- jusment variable by wich enterprises balance their current accounts while aiming et a desired structure of assets and liabilities (ratio of total debt to equity). In this approach inflation is not only the result of wages prices adjustments ; it is mainly the way by which the compatibility between producers and consumers antagonistic positions is ensured through wealth transfers (and is particular the depreciation of enterprises debts genera- ted"by inflation).
The introduction of the paper places Copain among recent macroeconomic analyses and gives an overview of simulations periods (1960-1978).
The paper then presents:
the main characteristics of the model,
the behaviour of economic agents and the derivation of econometric relationships,
a first analysis of the model properties : performances over the estimation period, scheme of main interactions, analytic simulations and multipliers.
The Copain model: patrimonial behaviours and financial integration, by Mario Dehove, Alain Fauqueur, Jean-Philippe Gaudemet, Michel Husson, Jean Mathis, Guy de Monchy, Dominique Vallet. Copain, an econometric model of the french economy, built by the research Bureau of the forecasting department (Ministry of economic and finance) is used since spring 81 for short and medium term policy simulation, jointly with more specific models (concerning taxes, government spending, social security system... ). While updating previous well known analyses for many relationships, the Copain model proposes a new interpretation of recent macroeconomic developments, with a special accent on the sources and the consequences of the.inflationary process, and with a codetermination of physical, nominal and financial variables. The price level is no longer explicitly derived from a cost-push mechanism ; implicitely calculated, it stands for the ad- jusment variable by wich enterprises balance their current accounts while aiming et a desired structure of assets and liabilities (ratio of total debt to equity). In this approach inflation is not only the result of wages prices adjustments ; it is mainly the way by which the compatibility between producers and consumers antagonistic positions is ensured through wealth transfers (and is particular the depreciation of enterprises debts genera- ted"by inflation). The introduction of the paper places Copain among recent macroeconomic analyses and gives an overview of simulations periods (1960-1978). The paper then presents: the main characteristics of the model, the behaviour of economic agents and the derivation of econometric relationships, a first analysis of the model properties : performances over the estimation period, scheme of main interactions, analytic simulations and multipliers.
