The multinational model Atlas, first part : the national models,
by François Cellier, Ronan Le Berre, Didier Miqueu.
The multinational model, Atlas, constructed by the modélisation and in ternational data bank section at the Forecast bureau, has been in use since autumn 1982 for making forecasts on Frances international environment and studying global scenarios associated with sundry hazards about raw material prices, exchange rates and economic policies, among other topics.
Atlas contains a model for each of the nine main Oecd countries together with the rest of the world's simplified representation divided into seventeen areas. Countries and regions are connected to each other with a model of Commerce describing global bilateral flows on a two-product basis : oil and non oil. The article is devoted to the national models, since the commerce model is to come out in a next Economie & Prévision issue.
Choosing specifications for national models results from a compromise between the findings of horizontal thematic research on the one hand and those of vertical country-basis research on the other hand.
The first part of the article is deroted to an overall introduction to national models, their common and different features. The importance given to the properties of each model in retrospective simulation as in variation is particularly underscored.
The second chapter explains how the relationships between household consumption and wages for every country are being dealt with. It gives one a clue to the sundry specifications, checked beforehand, and the contents of the choices that have been made.
The third part presents the US model relationships in full. Through that example, the logic and working of models are set out in detail , their properties are also exemplified by the results from the model working in retrospective simulation and in variation.
The multinational model Atlas, first part : the national models, by François Cellier, Ronan Le Berre, Didier Miqueu. The multinational model, Atlas, constructed by the modélisation and in ternational data bank section at the Forecast bureau, has been in use since autumn 1982 for making forecasts on Frances international environment and studying global scenarios associated with sundry hazards about raw material prices, exchange rates and economic policies, among other topics. Atlas contains a model for each of the nine main Oecd countries together with the rest of the world's simplified representation divided into seventeen areas. Countries and regions are connected to each other with a model of Commerce describing global bilateral flows on a two-product basis : oil and non oil. The article is devoted to the national models, since the commerce model is to come out in a next Economie & Prévision issue. Choosing specifications for national models results from a compromise between the findings of horizontal thematic research on the one hand and those of vertical country-basis research on the other hand. The first part of the article is deroted to an overall introduction to national models, their common and different features. The importance given to the properties of each model in retrospective simulation as in variation is particularly underscored. The second chapter explains how the relationships between household consumption and wages for every country are being dealt with. It gives one a clue to the sundry specifications, checked beforehand, and the contents of the choices that have been made. The third part presents the US model relationships in full. Through that example, the logic and working of models are set out in detail , their properties are also exemplified by the results from the model working in retrospective simulation and in variation.
