Contenu du sommaire

A typology of macro-policy simulations, by Dominique Bureau, Michel Norotte. The simulations worked out with Metric and Dms, the Administration 's two models, are studied through methods of data analysis. The possibility of bringing down most simulations to a few categories for which Keynesien mechanisms are still vital, is brought into relief. The global woof is alike in both models, which enables one to bring out some similar features in both cases. The first part describes the methodology and the data that have been used. The second one sums up the findings of factorial analyses and hierarchical classifications ; the latter have turned out to be richest for bringing out a total framework for analysis and making connections with the macroeconomic theory. The third one aims at explaining away the difference in outlook between both models over the connection between the budget deficit and the external accounts deficit. It gives one the opportunity to lay the emphasis on some much more general quantitative elements.

A model of the french financial system : the case of the «banques inscrites», by Evelyne Deval-Guilly, François Renard. The model of the French financial system suggests a method of analysis and forecast in banking activity based on the proceedings of trading accounts. The emphasis has been laid on each operation's responsiveness to interest rates variations and a thorough study of the evolution of spreads. The method enables one to bring into relief some features of the recent evolution of the banking system, especially its adaptability to high interest rates conjoncture which it has been faced with these last years; Besides, the method enables one to assess rigidities of this system, which contributes to keeping up interest rates. The first part of the article lays down the principJes used to make up the analytical framework, limited for the time being to the only «banques inscrites». The way the framework has been made up is being dealt with in the second part. Lastly, the third part is devoted to the survey of retrospective accounts (1980 82) and the making up of an estimated account for 1983.