Contenu du sommaire
| Revue |
Economie et prévision  |
|---|---|
| Numéro | no 146, 2000/5 |
| Texte intégral en ligne | Accessible sur l'internet |
- Une maquette analytique de long terme du marché du travail - Bernard Salanié p. 1-13
A Long-Term Analytic Model of the Labour Market by Bernard Salanié Several small-scale models have recently been built to study the long-term workings of the French labour market. The aim of this paper is to present just such a (very) small-scale model, which can be solved in closed form and easily calibrated, and to use it to simulate the effects of various economic policy measures. - Pacte de stabilité et efficacité de la politique budgétaire - Bertrand Martinot p. 15-30 Stability Pact and Fiscal Policy Efficiency by Bertrand Martinot This paper presents the effects of the stability pact on consumption in a small, calibrated model in which one fraction of the households has a Blanchard finite horizon while the other adopts liquidity-constrained behaviour. This model is used to simulate the non-Keynesian fiscal policy effects that could be generated by the stability pact at cruising speed. Simulations are made to measure the impact of the stability pact's 3% deficit ceiling on the variance in consumption for different structural deficit targets and parameter values. The findings suggest that, in this context and in France, a deficit target close to the pact's authorised ceiling could result in extremely high consumption variance. Conversely, consumption variance with a structural deficit of around 1% would be barely affected by the pact.
- Les déficits publics en Europe : suggestions pour un nouvel indicateur de l'orientation de la politique budgétaire - Catherine Bruno p. 31-41 Public Deficits in Europe: Suggestions for a New Fiscal Policy Trend Indicator by Catherine Bruno The growth in public deficits in Europe since 1970 may give the impression of widespread laxity. However, economic downturns such as the slump in the early 1990s generally lead to tax revenue losses and social transfers, which aggravate the budget deficit. Hence, the apparent "drift" in public balances is not always the result of deliberate government choices. An accurate measure of policy trends is therefore called for. In this study, we break down the primary budget balance into permanent and transitory components using a vector autoregressive model. The estimation is made for six European countries: Germany, Denmark, Spain, Italy, France and the United Kingdom. The fiscal policy trend in Germany and Denmark appears to be stable and could be said to obey fiscal rules. In the other four countries, especially in Italy and France, fiscal policy is conditional on the economy.
- Relation de Phillips, boucle prix-salaire : une estimation par la méthode de Johansen - Frédéric Lerais, Hervé Le Bihan, Eric Heyer p. 43-60 Revisiting the Classic Augmented Phillips Curve for France: a VECM Approach by Eric Heyer, Hervé Le Bihan et Frédéric Lerais This paper presents an empirical model of a price- wage loop based on French quarterly data. We apply the Johansen maximum likelihood technique to deal with the series' non-stationarity and capture nominal rigidities. Given that prices and wages can be treated as I(2) variables, we estimate a VECM in terms of price and wage differences. The classic augmented Phillips curve is hence interpreted as a cointegration relation. Our specification is used to test different wage and price indexation assumptions and to model short-run nominal rigidities. Two other long-run relations are identified: the mark-up of value-added prices over labour costs and a consumer price inflation equation involving import prices. We also use the Johansen and Juselius (1995) approach to identify and estimate a set of structural short-run price and wage equations.
- Une application d'un modèle collectif d'offre de travail sur données françaises - Nicolas Moreau p. 61-71 An Application of a Collective Labour Supply Model to French Data by Nicolas Moreau This paper estimates the Chiappori et alii ( 1 998) collective labour supply model using recent French data. The data only partially validate the model. Nevertheless, the estimates provide information on arrangements made within couples. When a wife's "divorce" threat is credible, she receives a larger share of the household's income from financial and real estate investments.
- Insertion des jeunes sur le marché du travail et nature du contrat d'embauché : une approche par la théorie des jeux répétés - Valérie Ulrich, Michel Sollogoub, Thierry Pénard p. 73-94 Integrating Young People into the Labour Market and the Type of Employment Contract: a Repeated Game Theory Approach by Thierry Pénard, Michel Sollogoub and Valérie Ulrich This paper compares the implications of signing a short-term contract as opposed to a long-term contract on the young, low-skilled labour market. Employers reap a number of advantages from opting for a short-term rather than a long-term contract. We use a repeated game theory framework to study the effect of the employment contract type (long-term or short-term) on the possibilities for co-operation between employees and their employers. Co-operation proves to be highly sensitive to the terms of employment contract termination. For example, an employer can use short-term contracts as a threat and hence an incentive to make employees work harder. This threat is less credible in the case of a long-term contract. Employers should therefore be more inclined to co-operate and pay a higher wage to offset the reduced effectiveness of reprisals under a long-term contract. We test this prediction based on data taken f
- Dynamique périurbaine et dépenses publiques locales : une analyse en termes de causalité - Marie-Estelle Binet p. 95-111 The Periurban Dynamic and Local Government Expenditure: A Causality Analysis by Marie-Estelle Binet This paper proposes new econometric methodology to test for tax competition between local authorities based on greater local government expenditure. A Granger analysis is made of the causality between the residential population level and the sum of public goods available in an area based on a sample of 25 French communes from 1960 to 1983. We show that the amount of local public goods in eight of the communes studied precedes and positively influences residential choices. Residential growth in these communes is hence partially explained by a tax competition strategy. Inverse causality is observed in seven other communes, which hence display adaptive behaviour.
- Taux d'imposition locaux optimaux et processus d'ajustement progressif : existe-t-il des clubs communaux en France ? - Christophe Tavéra, Alain Guengant p. 113-126 Optimal local Tax Rates and Gradual Adjustment Process: do Clubs of Towns Exist in France? by Alain Guengant and Christophe Tavéra This paper proposes an econometric study of the hypothesis of the gradual adjustment of tax rates voted in by town councils to the optimal rates wanted by median voters based on a relative sample of 850 French mainland towns with more than 10,000 inhabitants over the period from 1993 to 1995. The econometric analysis is based on a cross-section dynamic estimation. A recursive procedure with sequential stability tests endogenously determines the clubs of towns with homogeneous characteristics in terms of the convergence of the tax rate to the optimal rate.
- Dépendance de court et de long terme des rendements de taux de change - Christelle Lecourt p. 127-137 Short- and Long-Run Dependence of Exchange Rate Returns by Christelle Lecourt In this paper, we estimate an ARFIMA-GARCH model as introduced by Baillie, Bollerslev and Mikkelsen (1996) for the four leading daily exchange rate returns. Our main contribution is to take account of ARCH effects using a GARCH model and to consider the kurtosis in the series by opting for a Student distribution rather than a normal distribution. The results obtained show that most of the exchange rate return series have a poor long-run memory. The economic implications of these findings are considerable. Firstly, they should help improve forecasts of returns. Secondly, they imply that the efficient market (in the weak sense) hypothesis does not hold.
Méthodes
- Appréhender la conjoncture à l'aide de la méthode de Stock-Watson : une application à l'économie belge - Bertrand Candelon, Vincent Bodart p. 141-153 Understanding the Economy Using the Stock- Watson Method: an Application to the Belgian Economy by Vincent Bodart and Bertrand Candelon In recent studies, Stock and Watson (1989, 1991 and 1993) developed a new methodology for constructing economic indicators. Although this work has made a considerable contribution to business cycle analysis, it has strangely enough rarely been used for empirical applications. In this paper, we apply Stock- Watson' s methodology to Belgium. We show that the synthetic economic indicator obtained has remarkable properties and provides an unmistakably different view of the Belgian business cycle to that found by the more classic economic indicators.
- Extraction du cycle des affaires : la méthode de Baxter et King - Jean-Yves Fournier p. 155-178 Extracting the Business Cycle Using the Baxter and King Method by Jean- Yves Fournier Baxter and King recently proposed a method for extracting cyclical fluctuations and trends from economic time series. This method is based on a range of frequencies that defines the cycle. We present the construction of their approximate band-pass filter and its application to French GDP. The cycle obtained is used to estimate the output gap (the relative deviation between GDP and its trend), which is particularly important in economic policy. The band-pass filter is then used to identify the cycles of the French economy's main variables and those of the GDPs of France's economic partners. We show that household consumption is slightly less cyclical than GDP, whereas investment and foreign trade are more so. None of these series appears to consistently lag or lead GDP. Last but not least, we find that the cyclical components of European GDP are synchronised to some extent and that the Anglo-Saxon economies are persistently in the lead.
- Appréhender la conjoncture à l'aide de la méthode de Stock-Watson : une application à l'économie belge - Bertrand Candelon, Vincent Bodart p. 141-153
- Résumés - Summaries - p. 179-183
