Contenu du sommaire

Competition in the retail trade in France, by François Ecalle. First of all this article describes certain characteristics of competition in the retail trade which are inherent in the very nature of the activity. It stresses the fact that poor consumer information and the differences between the services provided do not necessarily prevent the free play of competition; they just temper it and keep it from being too harsh. It goes on to give the results for the sector of a survey of concentration measured by "arrondissement", showing that, in general concentration is quite limited, although in certain zones or sectors the levels were higher. The effect of the barriers set up by the French legislation on new commercial installations (the Royer Law) is also noted. The aim and provisions of this law might have led us to expect a sharp drop in the number of new supermarkets starting up. But it does not seem to have been enforced too harshly. Here again, big differences can be seen from one place to another and from one product to another. Finally, certain indicators are mentioned suggesting that competition has been generally intense in the retail trade in recent years. The legislation does threaten to check it, however, without any real economic justification, in numerous regions.

Japan: present successes, futures constraints, by Jean-Pierre Broclawski. The successes obtained by Japan in the recovery phase of the world economy which began in spring 1983 concretized the industrial restructuring efforts undertaken since the first oil crisis. The performances realized by the Japanese economy both concerning growth and the great macroeconomic equilibriums were perceived abroad first of all by its trade surpluses essentially in manufactured goods and then by the massive outflow of long terme capital still widely privileging portfolio movements. In the middle of the 1 980s the record surpluses of the trade balance are reinforcing Japan's status as the mam creditor of the international monetary system at a time when the United States are becoming debtors to the rest of the world and when the financial situation of the Opep is rapidly deteriorating. However the perenniality of this positive balance linked with the capacity of adaptation of Japanese production to the evolution of the international environment is not entirely ensured in the medium term. Japan will have to face up to the threats hanging over the freedom of trade and it will have to answer the ever sharper criticisms of its main partners, in the first place the United States. The passage to a model of growth founded on domestic demand and no longer centered on exports is a necessity proclaimed very officially by the Mayekawa report transmitted to the Prime Minister Mr. Nakasone on the eve of the Tokyo Summit. But this priority given to expansion of the domestic components of demand constitutes a particularly ambitious objective since the Japan's population is becoming older and older and since the amplitude of the national debt is rather inciting the government to continue applying a restrictive budgetary policy.

Developing economic budgets in Niger, by Jean Mathis, Guy de Monchy et Marc Rocca. Under a United Nations Development Programm (Undp) project to develop short-term economic analysis and forecasting in the Niger Republic, several teams of experts have visited this country since the end of 1983. The aim of this article is to show through a tentative experiment earned out in Niger the stages which can be reached in developing this type of forecasting depending on the economic information available and the existing administrative structures. The stages described here do not take into account the most recent missions and therefore do not reflect the latest situation with regard to the Undp's work to develop its short- term forecasting policy in the Niger Republic. After an introductory section explaining the approach used, three other sections show the transition process from analysis of how the economy functions to various stages of formalization thereof. First of all, therefore, the physical characteristics of the economy of Niger and its major macroeconomic circuits are described. The authors then explain the model-building stage and what can be learned in this way when statistical information is lacking. The last section presents a short-term forecasting model derived from an analogous pedagogical model developed for a macroeconomic forecast seminar organized by the Un at Niamey in July 1984. The conclusion touches on possible ways of improving on the work presented and certain conditions to be fulfilled if it is to be integrated into the economic policy development process.