Contenu du sommaire : Etudes du comportement des entreprises

The Decline and Recovery of French Business Between 1973 and 1986: an Attempted Synthesis. The evolution of the financial situation of French companies since 1973 has been one of the determining factors in the macroeconomic situation. The magnitude and the duration of the decline in French business accounts are largely linked to a deterioration of French position in foreign trade, but also on the domestic market. The turnaround in the profit ratios of French companies that occurred in 1984 likewise constitutes a crucial factor whose consequences will not be fully appreciated until the balance sheet disequilibriums have been eliminated. The article, prepared for the June 1988 session of the Commission des Comptesde la Nation (National Accounts Commission), attemps to synthesise all of the available data on the evolving situation of French companies since 1973. Using both macroeconomic and individualised data, it seeks to describe and explain the causes of the decline in French business and the nature of the current recovery process that began in 1984.

Two Macroeconomic Studies on Investment. Models based on Cœfficients Variable over Time and Co-Integration, by Jérôme Glachant and Jean- François Mivet. Since 1979, the modelling of investment behaviour in France has encountered serious difficulties. This article aims to propose new approaches to the problem. First, models were tested based on coefficients variable over time, so as to better understand the instability of behaviour. Next, research was carried out on the order of integration of series likely to intervene in explaining investment behaviour; an error-correction model was estimated. The study confirms the difficulties of the problem. Accelerator-type variables are less pertinent. The assessment of a long-term relationship between production, capital and technical progress appears difficult indeed.

Companies on the Rise, Companies in Decline: Why? by Patrick Artus, François Legendre and Pierre Morin. According to panel data, the dispersion of the characteristics of business firms is significant every year. Companies also show great diversity in their evolution over the course of time. The purpose of this article is, first, to describe the variety of paths followed by firms, and next, to seek causes likely to contribute to their expansion or decline. Stress is laid on capital investment behaviour, with a special concern for identifying, if possible, a type of "good behaviour" that could favour the recovery of companies willing to try it.

Dividend Distribution Policies Over the Period 1982-1986, by Michel Bua, Philippe Girard, Thierry Pujol and Philippe Redondo. Although dividend distribution policy appears stable from a macroeconomic viewpoint, it differs considerably between companies. An analysis of Balance-Sheet data highlights two aspects of firms' decisions in this matter: the choice between distributing or retaining profits is principally related to the company's size and profitability; as for the percentage distributed, it depends on the level of profits and, to a lesser extent, on the company's level of indebtedness and the risk involved in the company's nature of activities. In all cases, we can observe a noticeable tendency to inertia in distribution behaviour, which has often been commented in the literature.

Relations Between Producers and Distributors: an Empirical Approach, by Alain Chappert and François Ecalle. Relations between mass market retailers and their suppliers underwent a crisis in 1984 and 1985. Distributors gained significant advantages in dealing with producers through the creation of "supercentrales d'achats" (large-scale groups purchasing centres offering better conditions to members). This article aims to place this conflict in a historical perspective: before this battle with suppliers, the mass market retail sector was already witnessing difficult relations between traditional commerce and industry. Butthe events of 1984 and 1985 have leftfew perceptible traces. Although it is difficult to isolate the damage that producers suffered from strong market pressure, international comparisons show that the power of the agri-foodstuff industries and the power of the mass market distribution sectors are not mutually exclusive.

Research and Development in Pharmaceutical Industry: an Evaluation of the Results, by Philippe Temple. The French pharmaceutical industry, in contrast to French industrial sectors as a whole, has seen remarkable expansion in recent years. While this sector is creating new jobs and is showing a foreign trade surplus, its international position is nonetheless threatened because of its poor results in research and development. In a high-technology market, the French pharmaceutical industry has not been able to convert its technical innovations into major commercial successes. Although the R & D efforts of the leading French pharmaceutical companies do not appear to be inferior to those of their competitors abroad, they are dispersed among a greater number of projects. Therefore, the chances of success appear to be fewer. The present system of organising R & D efforts in the French pharmaceutical industry partly explains the rather disappointing results in the matter of innovation.

An Upturn in Capital Investment in Four Major Oecd Countries, by Jean- François Loué. In 1988, observers were surprised by the dynamism of capital investment, which upset most forecasts. Is the stock of existing capital simply being adapted to meet a stronger demand than anticipated? Or are we witnessing an unexplained phenomenon? A simple modelling of four countries (the United States, Japan, Britain and West Germany) sheds light on this debate and helps to update the forecasts; capital investment in 1988, in all four contries, was higher than had been foreseen by modelling. Forecasts of less exceptional growth for the next few years, as well as an abundant stock of existing capital, could lead to a slowdown, whose magnitude will depend largely on growth hypotheses that are themselves uncertain.

Error-Correction Models: the Contribution of Co-Integration Theory, by Françoise Maurel. Error-correction models have been used for several years by specialists in applied econometrics. Recently, the development of co-integration theory has provided an additionnai statistical basis for this type of dynamic model for formalising the notion of long-term relationships or relationships of equilibrium underlying the error-correction models, and by proposing procedures for testing the existence of such long-term relationships. This approach is essentially based on the theory of asymptotical behaviour of non-stationary series and on temporal series theory, but it has numerous applications in economics and applied econometrics.