Contenu du sommaire : Patrimoins, dettes, taux d'intérêt

The Life-Cycle Hypothesis and Property Accumulation: France 1986, by André Masson, Luc Arrondel. This article presents some tests on the life-cycle hypothesis, conducted on the basis of the cross-section data provided by the "Financial Assets" survey (Inséé, 1986). They concern the individual determinants of the overall value of wealth, as well as the nature and extent of its impact. The theory focuses on two explanatory variables of wealth disparities: age and permanent income, discounted income average (other than capital income) already acquired or expected over the whole life-cycle, which is evaluated on the basis of the instantaneous and retrospective information recorded during the survey. The findings of the empirical analysis, which may be compared to those of other foreign studies, suggest a qualified appraisal: the population's heterogeneous behavioral patterns with regard to accumulation lead us to relativize the scope of application of the life-cycle model, for it mostly concerns middle-class employees.

The Management of Retirement Systems in view of the Ageing of the Population, by Gilles Saint-Paul. This paper first points out the way in which the ageing of the population alters the optimal intertemporal consumption pattern. The consequences of this alteration on the management of the retirement system are then examined and an attempt is made to determine to what extent it is advisable to replace the allocation scheme by voluntary saving. The stability of equilibriums obtained is also touched upon. The outcome of this study is that, as long as economic growth is not fast enough, the best alternative is an increase in contributions with a substantial decrease in benefits.

The Households' Portfolio Choices: the Distribution of Liquidities (1970-1987), by Eric Bleuze, Jean-Marie Rousseau. This article discusses the results of the theoretical model of portfolio choice with adjustment costs in case of uncertain prospects; then the model is applied to French data (Terf) for the 1970-1987 period, in order to explain how households' liquid financial wealth is distributed. The article arises the following questions: which influence do returns play on the choice of liquid assets held by households; how do households perceive the adjustment costs: are they the same for the different kinds of liquid assets considered? Which is the weight of institutional variables, especially those related with regulated products such as saving accounts offering tax benefits or time deposits? Does the substitution effect between assets result in lumping together certain liquid assets which could be similar in nature, or do households think they are very different from one another?

Tax Depreciation Allowances, Economic Depreciation and Taxation on Profits, by Didier Maillard. The article first provides a method to measure the economic effects of various depreciation allowance schemes. Inflation-induced distortions are analyzed, as much as to what extent they are compensated by measures such as shorter life duration for tax purposes, double-declining allowance schemes and deducibility of nominal interest payments. Secondly, the concept of economic depreciation is defined, and economic depreciation patterns are developed on the basis of simple assumptions on the services that investments provide. Then it is shown that tax depreciation allowances, which only in exceptional cases coincide with economic depreciation, play an important role in effective taxation on profits. This role cannot be examined independently of the way in which investments are financed, whether by equity or by debt. Lastly the authors show the ambiguous nature of taxation on profits, which is both a tax on capital returns and a tax on microeconomic profits.

Public Authorities' Intertemporal Budgetary Constraint: Consequences with regard to Evaluating Public Deficit, by Michel Dietsch, Olivier Gamier. There are two main issues concerning the public debt increase. On the one hand, the transfer of resources from one generation to another induced by public debt may provoque an increase in interest rates and a slowdown in the rate of capital accumulation (the long-term crowding-out effect). On the other hand, when real interest rates are higher than the PNB's growth rate, the increase in interest expenses may prove to be unbearable on a long-term basis (the snowball effect), generating the fear that governments have to resort to inflation to maintain their solvability. This article attempts to show that public deficit measured as usually, does not bring out these effects adequately, and that it may even lead to misinterpretations.

The Impact of Public Debt on Some French Macroeconomic Variables, by Claude Deniau, Georges Fiori, Alexandre Mathis. Granger's statistical methods based on causality tests are used in the examination of relationships between public debt and other significant macroeconomic aggregates. This study brings out that the increase in public debt has little effect on the domestic interest rate or on money supply; conversely, a significant though indirect effect is shown on the external current account balance.

Determining Interest Rates in Europe, by Patrick Artus, Eric Bleuze, Philippe Ducos. This paper summarises the usual theoretical models for time structures and the models for the authorities reaction function. Then, it analizes the way in which short-term and long-term interest rates are determined both in France and in the FRG. The influence of American rates on the European ones is particularly emphasized as much as the relationship between French and German rates. Besides, the authors try to see to what extent European Central Banks areable to determine their own aims and the national short term interest rates. Lastly, they try to explain whether the connection between long-term rates and short-term rates has grown stronger in recent times or whether the time structure of interest rates between short-term rates and long-term rates has on the contrary become more rigid.

Comparison between the Level of French and German (FRG) Mandatory Social Contributions and Social Costs, by Magali Demotes-Mainard. Oecd data, customarily used for international comparisons, reveal a significant gap between the rates of taxes and social security contributions in France and in Germany, basically due to the burden of social contributions in France. However, it would be premature to conclude that the cost of social protection is greater in France than it is on the other bank of the Rhine: once the institutional difference between the two countries (primarily regarding the budgetary financing of certain benefits and the prominence of private insurance), the financial ressources allocated to social protection are virtually the same in France as in the FRG.

An Evaluation of Tax Progressivity: a Method and Illustrations, by Didier Maillard. This article sets out a method to build up a synthetical indicator showing the progressivity of a particular tax, such as the income tax. As an illustration, the indicator is calculated in the case of a married couple with two children in France. The effects on progressivity of various tax measures, actually implemented as well as those which could be envisaged, are assessed by means of this indicator.

The Deficit of Social Security's "General Scheme", by Dominique Lamiot. Social transfers make up more than one-fourth of national wealth. They show up in the recurring appearance of forecast deficits which reflect how French social protection functions, with the basically independent development of benefits leading to frequent adjustments to restore the equilibrium. The article gives an analysis of the different steps which result in the deficit of Social Security's general scheme and its relationship with the overall macroeconomic situation. The substantial impact of cash management, which can trigger significant cyclical blows on household disposable income, is also examined.

Capital Movements and Exchange Rate Crisis in the Early Eighties (1981-1986), by Olivier Davanne, Hélène Ewenczyk. On the basis of a historical analysis, this article is an attempt to evaluate the efficiency of the foreign exchange control between 1981 and 1986 in France. The balance of payments statistics of the Bank of France provides a framework for this analysis. It enables to measure foreign account disequilibriums and capital movements, whether speculative or not, which were partially responsible for this situation. As a conclusion, even though the exchange control did succeed in keeping down the particularly unfavorable expectations on the exchange market by means of real constraints on the most speculative capital movements, it did not succeed in avoiding the parity adjustments positively required in view of the severe degradation of French foreign accounts in the early 1980's.