Contenu du sommaire : Politique budgetaire, taux d'intérêt, taux de change

Politique budgétaire, taux d'intérêt, taux de change

• La soutenabilité de la politique budgétaire - Eric Jondeau p. 1-17
  The Sustainability of Budget Policy, by Eric Jondeau. The hypothesis of the sustainability of French budget policy, according to which there is a long-term relationship between receipts and expenses, is tested and rejected. The reason for this is probably the change in the government's behaviour over the 1965-1990 period. Short-term dynamics are analyzed using the tax smoothing theory, inducing a relationship of causality of receipts to expenses in the Granger sense. The interpretation that comes to light from this is that of rational behaviour on the part of the government.
• La gestion optimale des finances publiques en présence de coûts d'ajustement - Eric Jondeau, Jean-François Loué p. 19-38
  Optimal Public Finance Management in Relation to Adjustment Costs, by Jean-François Loué, Eric Jondeau. Amending tax laws and changing the terms and conditions for action and public spending generate uncertainty and therefore risk in the private sector. The credibility of the government's economic policy can in fact be affected by it. The way for a government to keep to its budgetary constraints over the long term and cut down on the risks resulting from changes in its policy at the same time is formalized.
• La détermination des taux de change dans les modèles multinationaux : l'état de l'art - Henri Sterdyniak, Agnès Bénassy p. 39-71
  Establishing Exchange Rates in Multinational Models : A State of the Art, by Agnès Bénassy, Henri Sterdyniak. This article analyses different theoretical models for establishing exchange rates and develops those which are used in multinational models. It examines the impact of choices over expectations,the balance sheet effects and monetary policy. This theoretical framework then makes it possible to examine how multinational empirical models handle exchange rates.
• L'instabilité de la détermination du taux de change dans un modèle monétariste - Jamel Trabelsi, Jacques Luzi p. 73-85
  The Instability of Establishing the Exchange Rate in an Open Economy, by Jacques Luzi, Jamel Trabelsi. This paper examines the short-term behaviour of the nominal exchange rate and the domestic price level and compares them with one another using an equilibrium model with rational expectations. The huge volume of nominal exchange rate movements is due to the influence of the exchange rate expectations on the domesticprice level and that of price expectations on the nominal exchange rate. The plausibility of these findings for changes in the dollar / yen exchange rate and the level of prices in America is confirmed in a simulation.
• Théorie des zones cibles et fonctionnement du SME - Antoine Magnier p. 87-113
  A Basic Presentation of the Theory of Target Zone and how it Applies to Studies on the EMS, by Antoine Magnier. A basic presentation of the theory of target zones for exchange rates is developed in this paper showing to what degree it provides a theoretical framework relevant for studies on the EMS. Its empirical weaknesses are analyzed. Some of the adaptations, however, especially the removal of the perfect credibility hypothesis, help us to better understand what the EMS actually is. Over the past years, the credibility of the EMS's fluctuation margins has grown increasingly, particularly those regarding the French Franc against the Deutschemark.
• Cycle de vie et élasticité de l'épargne des ménages au taux d'intérêt - Katheline Schubert p. 115-128
  Life Cycle and the Elasticity of Household Savings in Response to Interest Rates, by Katheline Schubert. The value of the elasticity of household savings in response to interest rates is argued. Whereas econometric tests show that it is very low, next to nil, in fact, the theoretical results obtained using the life-cycle model show that it can be very high. We adopt the latter of the two approaches and examine the determinants of such elasticity using a model of partial equilibrium. Over the long term, it can take on a wide range of values which are positive in nearly every case. A model of general computable equilibrium enables us both to examine the transitional paths which develop subsequent to a drastic change in interest rates and to distinguish between short-term and long-term elasticity.