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Revue Economie et prévision Mir@bel
Numéro no 105, 1992/4
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  • Retraites et croissance à long terme. Un essai de simulation - Didier Blanchet p. 1-16 accès libre avec résumé en anglais
    Retirement Pensions and Long-term Growth. A Tentative Simulation, by Didier Blanchet. The small model described in this paper is used to highlight some aspects of the debate on the future of pension systems. It is a neo-classical growth model with productive capital and overlapping generations. It distinguishes two types of savings "structural" savings not motivated by life-cycle considerations, and savings for retirement, the rate of which is controlled exogenously. The model allows examination of the complementarity and potential conflict between these two sources of savings. It also shows how returns could change according to demographic fluctuations, and enables simulation of the consequences of an increased retirement age.
  • Estimation des consommations de producteurs agricoles d'Afrique centrale - Christophe Muller p. 17-34 accès libre avec résumé en anglais
    Estimation of Consumption by Farmers in Central Africa, by Christophe Muller. The purpose of this paper is to estimate a linear system of consumer spending by Rwanda farmers. Several methods of estimation are used, particularly one to counteract the effects of the high own-consumption rate in these households. The available sociological observations are confirmed income elasticity for each good is estimated; minimal consumption is largely due to household composition. The influence of the head of the household and the environment is identified.
  • Ancienneté au chômage et principaux facteurs associés - Michèle Ruggiero p. 35-53 accès libre avec résumé en anglais
    Period of Unemployment and Chief Associated Factors, by Michèle Ruggiero. This paper uses non-parametric analytical methods to analyse periods of unemployment and demonstrates their use with a sample taken from the national files of the Union pour l'emploi dans l'industrie et le commerce (French Union for Employment in Trade and Industry), listing unemployment beneficiaries with varying periods of unemployment. The method of estimating the effects of age, of reasons for stopping work, or of the last salary is fairly different from the usual econometric ones, with no prior hypotheses based on links between the length of time in unemployment and the determining factors thereof.
  • Analyses du chômage de longue durée et du chômage récurrent le cas de la France - Mohamed Jellal, Marie-Christine Challier p. 55-72 accès libre avec résumé en anglais
    Analysis of Long-term and Recurring Unemployment - the Example of France, by Marie-Christine Challier, Mohamed Jellal. Examining the structure of long-term unemployment first reveals a number of effects, Le. the cohort effect, the seniority effect, the structure due to seniority effect. An empirical application is developed from data compiled by INSEE. An unemployment recurrence index is then constructed. The unemployment inflow rate is shown, rounding off the previous data which only gave the unemployment outflow rate.

  • Notes

    • Evolution de la demande réelle et de la structure des encaisses monétaires durant l'hyperinflation libanaise (1986-1987) - Joseph Gemayel p. 75-80 accès libre avec résumé en anglais
      Evolution of Real Demand and Balance Structure During Lebanese Hyperinflation 1986-1987, by Joseph Gemayel. The purpose of this paper is to estimate demand for real balances during the period of Lebanese hyperinflation, using the Cagan model. Results confirm that the model is valid in this case, which is that of a small open economy. Observation of the evolving balance structure shows that some of the functions served by the national currency, particularly that of reserve, have slightly diminished in importance.
    • Les enjeux économiques du contrôle des concentrations : un modèle simple - Didier Maillard p. 81-86 accès libre avec résumé en anglais
      The Economic Issues involved in Controlling Concentrations: A Basic Model, by Didier Maillard. An attempt is made to assess corporate concentrations within a framework of oligopolistic competitiveness at La Cournot. Corporate mergers result in a decrease in welfare all around if not enough rationalization and cost savings are put into them. When there are foreign consumers, the authorities, concerned over domestic welfare, tend to accept concentrations more easily.
    • Une évaluation de l'équivalent patrimonial des droits à la retraite détenus par les ménages - Laurent Vernière p. 87-93 accès libre avec résumé en anglais
      An Evaluation of the Asset Equivalent of Retirement Benefits in Households, by Laurent Vernière. The purpose of this paper is to measure the level of the net asset equivalent of aggregate retirement benefits, and their evolution between 1960 and 1985, separating people over 60 from those between 15 and 59. These retirement benefits are acquired by French households via pension schemes operating on a share-out principle. They represent a claim on future generations' incomes from work. The asset equivalent is then compared with the financial wealth and with gross disposable income of households.

  • Méthodes

    • Système de régressions empilées et panel incomplet : un tour d'horizon - Michel Simioni, Marc Ivaldi p. 97-107 accès libre avec résumé en anglais
      The Pooled Regression System and Incomplete Panel Data: An Overview, by Marc Ivaldi, Michel Simioni. This memo gives the usual methods for estimating a pooled regression system, first considering the example of incomplete panel data, laying particular emphasis on errors in specification: i.e. heteroscedasticity and the disregard of the conditions of orthogonality between exogenous variables and individual effects.
  • Résumés - Summaries - Zusammenfassungen - Resúmenes - p. 110-113 accès libre