Contenu du sommaire : Développements récents de la macro-économie

Développements récents de la macro-économie

• Présentation générale - Pierre-Yves Hénin, Louis-André Gérard-Varet p. 1-6
• Présentation et évaluation du courant des cycles réels - Jean-Olivier Hairault p. 1-22
  Presentation and Evaluation of Real Business Cycles, by Jean-Olivier Hairault. The King, Plosser and Rebelo model (1988) clarifies the development of different directions of research in real business cycles, which tend to question the pre-eminence of technological shocks in the explanation of economic fluctuations. Its evaluation of the United States and France reveals its inability to take account of particularly important stylized events that characterize the functioning of the labour market.
• Les modèles de cycle réel peuvent-ils expliquer les fluctuations de l'emploi et de la productivité ? - François Langot, Pierre-Yves Hénin, Xavier Fairise p. 23-40
  Can Real Business Cycle Models Explain Employment and Productivity Fluctuations, by Xavier Fairise, Pierre-Yves Hénin and François Langot. The ability of models from real business cycles to take account of labour market characteristics and, in particular, fluctuations in hours worked and productivity immediately focuses the debate. The article assesses this point by enhancing the basic model: the productivity cycle is reproduced relatively satisfactorily using the indivisible labour assumption, the introduction of a demand shock or the consideration of an adjustment cost. Nevertheless, the analysis of unemployment requires more radical questioning of the real business cycle model.
• Croissance endogène : les principaux mécanismes - Dominique Guellec p. 41-50
  Endogenous Growth: The Main Mechanisms, by Dominique Guellec. New theories are endeavouring to render productivity progress endogenous. It was previously considered to be exogenous. The behaviour of agents, especially in investment, persistently affects the production growth rate. The content of investment varies to cover such items as physical assets, education and research and development. The mechanism is always made feasible by the presence of returns to scale that are at least constant in the production of output factors and sometimes relies on externalities linked to the diffusion of knowledge.
• La construction et l'estimation de petits modèles macro-économiques - Teun Kloek p. 51-59
  Building and Testing Small Macroeconomic Models, byTeunKIoek. This article discusses some of the recent developments in building and estimating small macroeconomic models: simplifying and converting VAR models into econometric models; tests on the invariance of structural equation parameters and on the Lucas critique; relationships between economic theory and empirical work; and the choice of the specifications tested. These approaches are important in making the models used for economic policy forecasting and studies as sound as possible.
• Sélection du nombre de retards dans un modèle VAR : conséquences éventuelles du choix des critères - Alexandre Mathis, Georges Fiori, Claude Deniau p. 61-69
  Selection of the Number of Lags in a VAR Model Possible Consequences on the Choice of Criteria, by Claude Deniau, Georges Fiori and Alexandre Mathis. This work deals with determining the number of lags to be taken into account in auto-regressive vectorial representations. The sensitivity of the results obtained is examined for a set of three variables covering currency, the real interest rate and production.
• Coïntégration et modèles dynamiques - Antoine d'Autume p. 71-83
  Cointegration and Dynamic Models, by Antoine d'Autume. Integration and cointegration properties reveal the highly dynamic properties of macroeconomic models. Attempts are made to explain this by showing the close correlation between determinist properties, with respect to growth rates, and stochastic properties. This analysis is followed by a general discussion on the causes of the appearance of unit roots in macroeconomic models.
• Investissement, incertitude de la demande et contraintes de capacités David de la Croix - Omar Licandro p. 85-95
  Investment Under Demand Uncertainty and Capacity Constraints, by David de la Croix and Omar Licandro. The relevance of Tobin's q theory is evaluated under stochastic demand and capacity constraints by estimating a Belgian manufacturing investment function. Under these theoretical conditions, investment depends on average q and on the expectations about the degree of capacity utilization. The resulting estimates show that the introduction of the degree of capacity utilization as an additional explanatory variable significantly improves the investment rate equation.
• Taux d'intérêt et comportements spéculatifs sur le marché du franc français - François Renard, Michel Boutillier, Camille Baulant p. 97-108
  Interest Rates and Speculative Behaviour on the French franc Market, by Camille Baulant, Michel Boutillier and François Renard. First of all, the position of non-residents on the French franc and then the residents' position on the currency is analyzed by using a net worth approach to exchange rate modelling. The models identify speculative portfolios and hedging portfolios. Speculative behaviour only exists for short-term trading whereas hedging behaviour is seen in both short-term and long-term trading. This goes hand in hand with the foreign exchange control practised for most of the period studied (1979-1989).
• Modèles VAR et prévisions à court terme - Pierre Malgrange, Catherine Doz p. 109-122
  Using VAR Models for Forecasting, by Catherine Doz and Pierre Malgrange. The goal of this article is to evaluate the forecasting ability of a VAR model used as a simple "black box". The products of the estimations result in the selection of a VAR model with cointegration relations, as estimated by the Johansen method. It includes the following variables: GDP, consumption, imports, exports and investment. For the years studied and for certain outlooks, the performances of this model are fairly similar to those carried out by forecasting bodies.
• Passage à l'union économique et monétaire en Europe : effets sur la croissance et les politiques budgétaires - Patrick Artus p. 123-137
  The Move to Economic and Monetary Union in Europe: Effects on Growth and Budget Policies, by Patrick Artus. The efficiency of the EMS and EMU has already been extensively examined from the point of view of the ability of economic policies to stabilize economies, react to asymmetrical shocks and sustain credibility. A less-developed point is dealt with in this article. How should budget policies be organized following monetary union? Should they be co-ordinated or constrained? Should transfers between countries be organized? How do they correspond to common monetary policy?