Contenu du sommaire
Revue | Economie et prévision |
---|---|
Numéro | no 119, 1995/3 |
Texte intégral en ligne | Accessible sur l'internet |
- Spécification des préférences implicites en matière de politique économique française, 1981-1991 - Robert Marti p. 1-11 Implicit Preference Specification in French Economic Policy from 1981 to 1991 by Robert Marti France has some of the highest unemployment rates of all the leading industrialized countries. Has the goal of full employment really been a priority over the last decade? This paper endeavours to estimate economic policymakers' preferences. The inverse control technique is used to identify the policy goal function and VARX modeling is used to describe the economic environment. The resulting conclusion is that action to curb unemployment appears to have been a secondary economic goal far behind monetary concerns.
- Calendrier du temps de travail et rationnements partiels - Marie-Christine Challier p. 13-30 The Working Hours Timetable and Partial Rationing. Integrating Flexible Time Management and New Forms of Employment into the Labour Supply Theory by Marie-Christine Challier Although the annual labour supply is generally considered to be a generic term, we have defined it here as the product of two supply sub-functions. For example, we consider the number of weeks worked per year with the number of hours in the working week and the number of months worked with the number of hours in the working month. The purpose of this article is to bring to light two labour supply aspects, which are seldom addressed. These are the working hours timetable and the partial rationing of the supply in the presence of imperfect information on income. This study is different in that it integrates the legal aspects of flexible time management methods and the different forms of employment into theoretical models. It is equally original for its use of empirical methodology based on historical analysis.
- Chômage et exportation agricole : le cas des régions ultra périphériques de l'Europe - Jean Gabriel Montauban, Patrice Borda p. 31-42 Unemployment and Agricultural Exports: The Case of the Outlying Areas of Europe by Patrice Borda and Jean-Gabriel Montauban An analysis of the structure of underemployment in Europe's outlying areas reveals the existence of a dual market in these small economies. The purpose of this article is to present a dual market model taking account of unofficial activities and the constraint on the output of secondary sector firms. In this way, we highlight the factors that encourage the emergence of underemployment.
- Investissement et rationnement sur le marché tunisien des importations de biens d'équipement - Riadh Ben Jelili p. 43-58 Disequilibria and Quantitative Adjustment on the Tunisian Intermediate and Capital Goods Import Market: An Estimate Using the Simulated Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Method byRiadhBenJelili This article looks at a market that is particularly important to investment projects in Tunisia: the intermediate and capital goods market. We concentrate on a short-term outlook (with prices considered to be exogenous and fixed) and develop a disequilibrium model for the Tunisian intermediate and capital goods import market. This model integrates both supply and demand constraints. Furthermore, we introduce the possibility of investment behaviour adjusting to the disequilibrium situation observed on the market in question. By estimating this model using the simulated pseudo maximum likelihood method, we highlight the role of quantitative adjustments in reducing disequilibria. However, the adjustment is not total and the hypothesis of fixed prices would appear to be rather extreme. .
Régulation des entreprises de réseaux
- Ouverture à la concurrence dans les réseaux : l'approche stratégique de l'économie des réseaux - Anne Perrot p. 59-71 Opening Up Networks to Competition: The Strategic Network Economy Approach by Anne Perrot The network economy, developed since the mid-1980s, examines the consequences of strategic behaviour at work in the markets featuring either the presence of network externalities (supply or demand externalities) or the goods-systems nature of the products provided. When combined with advances in regulation theory, which envisages the implications of asymmetric information situations between regulator and regulated firms, this study throws a great deal of light on the organization that should predominate in the activities previously entrusted to public monopolies. The article studies the implications of this theoretical progress for the operation of the sectors open to competition (transport, telecommunications, energy, etc.).
- Transport aérien : bilan de l'expérience américaine de libéralisation et leçon pour l'Europe - Laurent Kenigswald p. 73-86 Air Transport: Review of the American Liberalization Experience and a Lesson for Europe by Laurent Kenigswald The complete liberalization of the European skies scheduled for 1 April 1997 should take the form of a substantial restructuring of the supply, a drop in prices and a stimulation of demand. These forecasts, shared by the vast majority of air transport specialists, are based on the analysis of the extensive changes made in the United States over more than fifteen years. Most of these changes can be transposed to the European market: greater choice, widening of the price range and decrease in average rates. The ways in which these changes are made could nevertheless differ from those observed in the United States. They will probably rely less on a reorganization of the networks into a hub and spoke system and more on a decrease in the costs of insufficiently competitive airlines. Although the assessment of the liberalization of the American skies is largely positive, the analysis reveals certain "failures" by the body in charge of regulating competition. The national regulatory authorities and the European Commission will have to avoid reproducing these errors, in particular by finding the means to effectively curb congestion in the sky and certain airports.
- Ouverture à la concurrence des monopoles énergétiques : analyse générale et étude du cas britannique - Bertrand Mourre p. 87-105 Opening Up Energy Monopolies to Competition: General Analysis and Study of the British Experience by Bertrand Mourre The deregulation of electricity in Europe could take on a number of different forms in the future. This article compares the advantages and disadvantages of these forms. The integrated Single Buyer System appears to be efficient, as it correctly integrates the long-term consideration and avoids an asymmetry of information between the producer and the network manager. Yet it also has disadvantages from the point of view of competition. The situation is inverse for the Disintegrated Single Buyer system and the Access of Third Parties to the Network system. The article then analyzes the British gas and electricity deregulation experience. This appears to be relatively satisfactory from the point of view of competition and productivity. Nevertheless, the long-term programming of electricity investments remains one of the system's weaknesses.
- Dix ans de réforme des télécommunications au Royaume-Uni : échec du pilotage de la structure de marché et libéralisation complète - Axel Thonier p. 107-125 Ten Years of Telecommunications Reform in the United Kingdom: Failure to Steer the Market Structure and Complete Liberalization of the Market, by Axel Thonier This article studies the development of the telecommunications sector in the United Kingdom over the last ten years. It endeavours to provide something of an assessment, highlighting the main trends of this deregulation and privatization movement: a gradual increase in competition and stronger rate regulation coupled with BT privatization. In spite of the failure to steer the market structure with a duopoly from 1984 to 1991, the British experience led to considerable efficiency gains, lower cost-related rates and a more diversified supply in 1995. At European level, OFTELis at the vanguard of national regulators who will have to adjust their respective situations by the 1 January 1998 deadline for the complete liberalization of the sector.
- Réglementation des monopoles et coût social des fonds publics - Dominique Bureau p. 127-136 Regulating Monopolies and the Social Cost of Public Funds by Dominique Bureau The new regulatory economy has brought to light the conflicting objectives faced by all regulators endeavouring to promote the efficiency of a natural monopoly without leaving it excessive rents. The arbitration between these two terms depends on the chosen social cost of the public funds. The apparent dispersion of the regulatory mechanisms that are actually used, in terms of rents left and thus of incentive, suggests that this social cost is not determined purely by tax biases. The risk of these rents becoming dissipated in the form of capital accumulation to discourage potential competition from unregulated substitutes could explain why, in some cases, regulators are apparently reluctant to leave rents.
- Ouverture à la concurrence dans les réseaux : l'approche stratégique de l'économie des réseaux - Anne Perrot p. 59-71
Méthodes
- La méthode des moments généralisés et ses extensions : théorie et applications en macro-économie - François Langot, Patrick Fève p. 139-170 The Generalized Method of Moments. Theoretical Extensions and Macroeconomic Applications by Patrick Fève and François Langot The purpose of this paper is to present the main theoretical results obtained when using the Generalized Method of Moments. Principles, statistical properties and various illustrations of the estimator of this method are discussed. Then covariance matrix computation methods are explained and various specification tests examined. A number of extensions of this method are also studied. Lastly, the use of such a method is illustrated by empirically applying it to the estimation of the structural parameters of a Consumption Based Capital Asset Pricing Model.
- Nettoyage de fichiers dans le cas de données individuelles : recherche de la cohérence transversale - Elizabeth Kremp p. 171-193 Cleaning Files Containing Individual Data: The Search for Transversal Consistency by Elizabeth Kremp This article first defines the notions of aberrant values and extreme values. It then describes the statistical tools and presents different univaried methods for identifying these values. Eight techniques based on these tools and methods are tested on a file of company data for one ratio. One of the conclusions of these tests is that robust statistics need to be used in the methods seeking to identify aberrant points. Three of these techniques are applied to seven ratios for a comparison, evaluation of the role of the choice of ratios and measurement of the cumulative observation elimination phenomena. Two of these techniques produce very similar results. The easiest technique to apply eliminates the observations situated at more than three interquartile intervals from the first and third quartiles. However, if the distribution of the real population for the variable studied differs greatly from a normal distribution, this technique can eliminate too many observations. In this case, a variant that eliminates the observations at more than five interquartile intervals would appear preferable.
- La méthode des moments généralisés et ses extensions : théorie et applications en macro-économie - François Langot, Patrick Fève p. 139-170
- Résumés - Zusammenfassungen- Summaries - Resúmenes - p. 196-203