Contenu du sommaire
| Revue |
Economie et prévision  |
|---|---|
| Numéro | no 137, 1999/1 |
| Texte intégral en ligne | Accessible sur l'internet |
- L'offre de travail des femmes des exploitants agricoles "indépendants" : application sur données françaises - Michel Sollogoub, Hervé Guyomard, Catherine Benjamin p. 1-12
Labour supply of farmers' wives: an application to French data by Catherine Benjamin, Hervé Guyomard and Michel Sollogoub When allocating their working time, farmers' wives make a choice between working on the farm and/or working off the farm. One specific feature of their labour supply is that the marginal remuneration of the agricultural activity is not observable. It is defined by the agricultural household's production activities. The agricultural producer and consumer household model is used to define the criteria for female participation in an agricultural activity and/or in the labour market off the farm. An empirical study based on a sample of French agricultural households shows that exogenous variables (education, farm characteristics, etc.) generally have opposite effects on the probability of working on the farm and on the probability of working off the farm. - L'allocation de parent isolé : une prestation sous influences. Une analyse de la durée de perception - Cédric Afsa p. 13-31 Lone-parent allowance: a sensitive benefit - an analysis of the payment period by Cédric Afsa The lone-parent allowance (API in French) is a minimum welfare benefit paid for a limited length of time. It is designed for pregnant women and parents (usually women) bringing up their children alone. An analysis of data taken from the files of the family allowance funds that pay the allowance shows a wide dispersion of actual lengths of time for which the benefit is paid. Approximately 60% of the women stop receiving the lone-parent allowance early, before they come to the legal end of the benefit. The length of time for which the benefit is paid is also itself sensitive to various socio-demographic, individual and environmental factors (such as the local unemployment rate). In addition to this variability, qualitative studies have found heterogeneous behaviour. However, we are unable to observe this phenomenon with the data at our disposal.
- Convergence des productivités dans l'industrie manufacturière. Une comparaison du couple franco-allemand aux autres pays industrialisés - Emmanuel Robert, Jean-Philippe Boussemard p. 33-47 Productivity convergence in the manufacturing industry. A comparison of France and Germany with other industrialised countries by Jean-Philippe Boussemart and Emmanuel Robert This paper measures the total factor productivity gains and performance convergence of industrial sectors in France, Germany and the other Euro-zone countries compared with other OECD economies. It does this by computing a production frontier for 17 industries in 15 countries for the period from 1979 to 1992. This approach breaks down the productivity gains into technical efficiency variation and technological progress. We find a definite convergence phenomenon in the industrial performances of France and Germany. This suggests that these countries' industries have already taken productivity adjustment measures to handle the irreversible transition to European Economic and Monetary Union.
- La contribution du capital public à la productivité des facteurs privés : une estimation sur panel sectoriel pour dix pays de l'OCDE - Christophe Hurlin p. 49-65 The contribution of public capital to private factor productivity: an estimate using sector-based panel data for ten OECD countries by Christophe Hurlin This paper uses sector-based panel data on ten OECD countries to produce a number of estimates of the return on public capital. The introduction of country-specific effects finds that public capital has positive effects on private productivity. However, these effects are relatively moderate compared with those found by a level-based specification applied to aggregate chronological data. We find no distinct or systematic deviation between the estimated public capital elasticities and the public investment ratio for the countries in our panel.
- La modélisation Var "structurel" : application à la politique monétaire en France - Olivier De Bandt, Catherine Bruneau p. 67-94 Structural VAR modeling: application to France's monetary policy by Catherine Bruneau and Olivier De Bandt This paper discusses the purposes and limits of "structural" VAR modeling. It explains the choices that modelers have to make at different stages of the procedure. An illustration is provided by an analysis of monetary policy shocks in France over the 1972:1-1995:2 period. Compared with previous studies of this country, the main finding is the statistically significant effect of monetary policy on economic activity and inflation. This is found by introducing an additional variable that measures budget policy. The article shows that "structural" VARs can be used to analyse the 1993 recession.
- Cycles de la production industrielle : une analyse historique dans le domaine des fréquences - Pierre Villa p. 95-108 Industrial production cycles: a historical analysis of frequencies by Pierre Villa This paper uses the ARFIMA method to study industrial production cycles. We calculate monthly industrial production and unemployment rate data. We then filter them using "Holt and Winters" and then "Geweke and Porter-Husak" to find the long-run memory trend corresponding to a fractional degree of integration. We estimate the fluctuations, which are measured by the difference between the seasonally adjusted series and the long-run memory trend as measured by the inverse Fourier transform. No regular cycle is found. The first interpretation of this is that a "ratchet" effect is at work. The second interpretation is that the government has stabilised the economy using Keynesian policies since the Second World War. A third interpretation is that the observed random shocks are related to the real business cycle theory.
Notes
- Impacts de différents instruments de politique agricole en termes de surplus domestique et de relations commerciales - Vincent Richard p. 109-116 The impacts of different agricultural policy instruments on domestic surplus and trade relations by Vincent Richard Welfare economics explain some of the implications of agricultural policy choices on welfare gains for the European Union in the light of recent debates on the coming CAP reform and the coming round of multilateral trade talks. The findings of the welfare economics analysis of different policies also concern trade relations. It is found that an economy in partial equilibrium in terms of its agricultural sector, using the domestic collective surplus criterion (sum of gains and losses for producers, consumers and public finances), would find it worthwhile to multilaterally withdraw all the policies that distort its domestic production and consumption choices and trade. This path does not challenge compliance with agricultural policy targets such as the CAP objectives. It actually helps to attain them at less cost, unlike price support policies, irrespective of whether they are combined with supply quotas.
- Impacts de différents instruments de politique agricole en termes de surplus domestique et de relations commerciales - Vincent Richard p. 109-116
Méthodes
- Guide pratique des séries non-stationnaires - Bernard Salanié p. 119-141 A guide to non-stationary series by Bernard Salanié The purpose of this paper is to present traditional and more recent econometric procedures for estimating and testing systems that contain non-stationary variables. The aim throughout is not to prove asymptotic results, but rather to weigh the pros and cons of using each method. The article attempts to show that more recent methods may be more straightforward and/or robust than procedures developed in the early 1980s.
- Guide pratique des séries non-stationnaires - Bernard Salanié p. 119-141
- Résumés - Summaries - p. 144-147
- Erratum [Economie et prévision, 36/5, 1998, p.74] - p. 148
