Contenu du sommaire : Trois ans de politique monétaire européenne

The European monetary policy : an achievement after three years The article draws up achievement of the European monetary policy three years after the implementation of the euro and the transfer of the full monetary sovereignty in the BCE. The first lessons show that its monetary policy strategy allows the elaboration of appropriate measures of monetary policy. The approach takes into account the complexity of the euro zone economy and countered rather sturdy to face the evolutions of the world economy. In this framework, the decisions of monetary policy are clear. Although the monetary policy of the BCE is generally considered as suited, some questions were raised by outside observers. These interrogations require that it is necessary to pursue the process of familiarization with this new approach and to intensify the communication JEL classifications : E5, E52, E58

For a strategy of inflation targeting in the euro zone The transparency is favorable to the coordination of the micro-economic decisions and to the efficiency of the monetary regulation. We show that the current strategy of the ECB is weakly based in its conception and in its applications, the « two pillars » establishing questionable references and little used in practice. A monetary rule, or a device of inflation targeting, could return the ECB policy more understandable and more predictable. Finally we review the criticisms usually sent to the monetary rules, and show that they do not resist to an attentive analysis. Because of its big independence, the ECB would win to adopt a strategy of inflation targeting. JEL classifications : E5, E52, E58

The Eurogroup : achievement and challenges The Maastricht treaty foresees complex procedures, little known by public, to organise the economic policy co-ordination of the European Union Member states. This situation is the product of a former reflection on monetary Union. But the treaty does not foresee explicitly co-ordination between the countries which adopted the euro. The group of Ministers of finances in the euro zone, or Eurogroup, was set up in 1998 to repair this neglect. The Eurogroup acquired gradually more public visibility. Why to create this group while Ministers of finances continue to meet within the framework of the council Ecofin ? What achievement concerns the first three years of activity of the Eurogroup, and what evolutions are envisaged ? This article answers briefly these questions. JEL classifications : D71, E61, H77

Institutional and political requirements for economic policy coordination in Euroland This paper evaluates the need for policy coordination, distinguishing between weak and strong forms of coordination failure. It shows that intergovernmental coordination may be an answer to the latter, Pareto-improving multiple equilibria. However, overcoming weak coordination failure requires further policy delegation to the EU-level, particularly for the definition of an aggregate fiscal policy stance. Yet, this is only possible if the democratic deficit resulting from intergovernmental cooperation is closed by a European-wide policy consensus. To achieve this should be the objective of a European constitution. JEL classifications : D71, E6, E61, E63, H3, H77, H87

The too weak integration of public bond markets in the euro zone The spreads of rate between sovereign issuer in the euro zone do not result from the absence of solidarity between issuers either of differences in macroeconomic situations or budgetary solvency. They come from customs and from irrational behaviour in the moments of « flight to quality ». The non-economic character of these spread of rate has two consequences ; the discipline of market does not play : it is not because a country has a deficit or a national debt more important that it pays a higher interest rate ; the European public bond market is not unified, what is an handicap with regard to the American market. To compare the total liabilities of national debt in the United States and in the euro zone thus has few sense. JEL classifications : E43, E6, G15

Some questions on a single monetary policy in an integrating economic and financial zone Since 1999, the debate to know if the euro zone is a ZMO has now no sense. Nevertheless, there is a debate on the risks of a single « one size fits all »monetary policy led in a still diverse economic and financial zone. The questions concern for the main part : - the synchronisation of the macroeconomic cycles ; - the structural distances between Member states ; - the capacity of the macroeconomic adjustments to mitigate the absence of national monetary policy ; - the efficiency of economic policies co-ordination in the absence of the federal budget ; - the national specificities of monetary policy transmissions ; - the role of the exchange rate within the euro zone. This article attempts to examine these various problems. JEL classifications : E52, E6, E61, E63

Assessment and consequences of the structural heterogeneity of the euro zone To guarantee its success, the project of EMU was based on a nominal convergence between Member states. But was the structural convergence reached ? As far as this convergence will guarantee that the single monetary policy will have the same consequences for all the Member states, this article tries to answer this question. It shows in a first part that the macroeconomic empirical proofs are vague and that a more meticulous analyse, in particular on the financial structures, will be necessary in both following parts. JEL classifications : E5, E6, G1, G2

Monetary policy in the presence of uncertainty : a survey with special emphasis on EMU The aim of this contribution is to provide a survey on the literature regarding the uncertainty issue for monetary policymaking in EMU. Based on a distinction on three kinds of uncertainty, it also offers a methodological viewpoint on the way this problem may be tackled at an empirical level. A strong emphasis is put on parameter uncertainty, which may surround the aggregate transmission channel of monetary policy in EMU. JEL classifications : E5, E52

Price level versus inflation targeting : achievement and challenges Should a central Bank target the inflation or rather the price level to maximise the social welfare ? This article analyses this question which is essentially set in a new keynesian framework, characterised by nominal rigidities and rational anticipations. First, this article exposes inherent mechanisms to the two types of target. Then it gives an outline of the stakes on which the studies on this subject mainly focused. The authors introduce then the notion of credibility of the monetary policy into a new keynesian environment, a good understanding of which is necessary for the intuition of the results on the choice of the target. Finally, the discussion is widened by introducing various additional aspects susceptible to be more effectively resolved under a price level targeting. JEL classifications : E5, E52.

What international role for the euro ? The international role of a currency is a notion difficult to measure because it is a question of assessing the custom which make the non-residents and this custom is multiple. However, the euro already appears as the second international currency after the dollar. The main reason likes the important roles, which already played its component currencies, notably the DM, on the international markets. The internationalisation, being widely inherited from the past behaviour, has thus apparently nothing spectacular. But the introduction of the single currency provoked an important break, what suggests that its international role is not the simple aggregation of that of its constituent currencies. This article so returns on the use of the euro by private agents, then on the responsibilities of this currency in the IMS and the EU. JEL classifications : F3, F31, F36

Determining factors of a rating given to local governments in four European countries : France, Italy, Spain and Sweden This paper attempts to analyze the determining factors of a rating given to local governments in four European countries : France, Italy, Spain and Sweden. In order to gain insight into those factors, which are most significant in explaining such ratings, a set of financial, fiscal and socio-economic ratios has been studied, derived from publicly available information. The results of discriminant analysis show that a small subset of variables from fiscal, financial and socio-economic type derived from published accounts and statistics provide useful information for a local government or its partners willing to assess its level of risk. The most significant determinants of the rating are regional GDP/capita and local unemployment rate, debt indicators, proportion of flexible revenues as well as gross operating margin and net budgetary balance. JEL classifications : G33, H74