Contenu du sommaire : Cybersécurité : extension du domaine de la lutte

Cyberattacks are becoming more frequent and more sophisticated. Their perpetrators, like their victims, may be states, or they may be private individuals. Cyberconflict is a particularly difficult phenomenon to grasp, given the large number of parties involved, the difficulty of accurately identifying the sources of attacks, and the emergence of new forms of information warfare. Attempts to apply international rules to cyberspace have shown only limited results.

In January 2018, France carried out its first “Strategic Review of Cyberdefense” (Revue stratégique de cyberdéfense). The report analyzes existing threats in the domain of cyberspace while noting the flaws in the international regulation of the Internet. It outlines the principles according to which cyberdefense is organized in France, presenting the state as the country's guarantor of cybersecurity. It also calls for the re-establishment of French digital independence and contains measures to improve public-private cooperation.

Computer-based attacks are becoming more frequent and more sophisticated. Cyber weapons, including viruses and worms, are being devised and disseminated by both public and private sources. Against this backdrop, a number of states are seeking to prevent the proliferation of malicious software. The regulation of cyber weapons is proving to be especially problematic, however, and the judicial remedies that have so far been adopted are not sufficient on their own to guarantee stability in cyberspace.

With today's high level of interconnection between people and devices, privacy is becoming less well protected. Internet-based companies are thriving on the mass exploitation of personal data. States are breaking the normal rules to collect data in order to fight terrorism and crime. Legal measures cannot guarantee a balance between security and the protection of individuals. In the future, the justice system will be called upon to play an enhanced role in this regard.

Narendra Modi's India has ambitions to gain the status of a global power, but the country is not there yet. The numerous immediate challenges, including those concerning Pakistan and China, mean that Delhi has to devote its resources to regional stability. Internal instability caused by ethnic or separatist tensions often results in terrorist attacks, limiting the government's room for maneuver through foreign policy, not to mention the bureaucratic burden that already comes with foreign affairs.

Narendra Modi's BJP has held an unprecedented majority since the 2014 elections. His government has significantly strengthened the Indian market at an international level. However, the rise in foreign investment has not translated into growth or job creation. Furthermore, the BJP's wide electoral base could become eroded because of the government's support for Hindu extremists and the upsurge in intercommunal (largely anti-Muslim) violence, which is rupturing the country's social fabric.

Supported by Mike Pompeo and John Bolton, President Trump is seeking to take direct control over foreign policy decisions, despite the difficulty of fitting the Trump doctrine into the narrative of American diplomatic relations. With the appointment of Pompeo and Bolton, the administration has put its cards on the table, with a strategy of permanent tension vis-à-vis Iran, Syria, and North Korea. Calls to observe norms and values remain unheeded in the face of a strategy focusing on interests.

Launched in 2016, the Three Seas Initiative brings together twelve EU member states across Central Europe with the aim of strengthening economic cooperation along a north-south axis running from the Baltic to the Adriatic and Black Seas. The initiative's summit in Warsaw was attended by the President of the United States. Donald Trump expressed his support and discussed cooperation in the two strategic areas of energy and defense. The initiative has since gained visibility.

The Gulf of Guinea is a major shipping lane and contains various resources, notably oil, thus prompting greed and tension. With support from the international community, the nations in this region are facing up to piracy. Insurgent and secessionist movements, especially in the Niger delta and Ambazonia (the English-speaking region of Cameroon), are a further source of instability threatening the region.

Since 2015, several countries in the European Union have been hit by attacks. The transnational dimension of the threat has prompted member states to strengthen their security union. Various new directives have been adopted, and cooperation measures have been implemented or improved. Nevertheless, the EU's anti-terrorist activities have remained limited, due largely to the desire of member states to retain control in areas of national security.

Until very recently, the United States paid only limited attention to the Arctic. With global warming and the opening up of the region to the rest of the world, however, the US is noticeably changing its attitude. The increased number of strategic documents from the end of the 2000s, as well as the renewed diplomatic investment in the Arctic Council, demonstrate a heightened interest from the United States for this region in transition.

The US Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), published in February 2018, reaffirms the importance of American nuclear capability as part of US strategy in a worsening strategic environment. The review is symbolically different from Obama's call for an end to nuclear weapons. The new NPR has signaled changes in capacity, especially in favor of tactical weapons, rather than an actual break with the past. These changes are dependent upon future budgetary decisions by Congress.

China's energy needs are huge, and will continue to increase. The stability of the Communist Party depends on economic development and poverty reduction. China is already the top importer of oil and gas and the world's biggest producer and consumer of coal. Energy is a key factor in the strategic decisions made by the Chinese leadership, which is demonstrating a “utilitarian internationalism with a strong hint of Realpolitik.”