Contenu du sommaire : Sorties de guerres

Negotiating the Treaty of Versailles: A Lesson in Exactly What Not to Do
The negotiation of the Treaty of Versailles did not go as planned. The Germans found themselves compelled to accept a text they perceived as a diktat. Not only was the peace of Versailles unilateral, it was also contradictory, insofar as the principles of Wilsonianism came up against more traditional geopolitical concerns. Fueled by the work of experts, the Treaty was complex and difficult to grasp, and also left the door open for a future revision.

Victory Today, from Transience to Supersession
Victory is a more complicated notion than it might seem. It implies that military and political objectives have been attained, but also that the adversary perceives and accepts a new strategic reality. The asymmetric wars of the early twenty-first century – in Afghanistan and Iraq, as well as the Sahel – show that military superiority is no guarantor of victory. But we should not conclude from this that all use of armed force is necessarily in vain.

Conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Eternal Return ?
In the Sahel, in South Sudan, and in the Great Lakes region, recurrent conflicts bear witness above all to the failure of modes of governance inherited from colonization. Those in political power have never reflected the diversity of their society's communities. Under such conditions, the supposed democratization of the 1990s could hardly have been anything more than an illusion. Oligarchies have turned towards increasingly violent forms of predation, and all the pieces seem to be in place for these conflicts to continue.

Iran 2028, a Political Reverie
Strengthened American sanctions could lead to an increase in internal unrest, in spite of a certain liberalization of everyday life. Iran would at first adopt a relatively discreet international position, maintaining the JCPOA, and accepting the consequences of an external investment with limited returns. After the conservative temptation, the unexpected may well arise from an opening up of the Iranian regime both internally and externally.

Understanding the Resilience of the Islamic Republic of Iran
The leaders of Iran nurture regional ambitions, and are conscious of the limits of their country's power. They therefore opt for an indirect strategy, avoiding all direct confrontation with the adversaries of the Islamic Republic. The new American sanctions risk bringing Tehran yet closer to Moscow and Beijing. Those who believe that sporadic demonstrations may evolve into a full-fledged revolution are underestimating the regime's resilience.

The 2017 Gulf Crisis, One Year On
In June 2017, several Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, came together to announce a number of very hardline measures against Qatar. Far from bowing to the conditions that would have allowed these measures to be lifted, Qatari leaders instead strengthened their links with other countries, succeeded in finding new supply lines, and were able to maintain their sovereignty. Although the crisis remains unresolved, it already constitutes a defeat for Riyad and Abu Dhabi.

Neo-Nationalists in Power in Rome?
The 2018 Italian elections saw the victory of the Northern League and the Five Star Movement, two populist parties that came together to form a Eurosceptic government. Their main grievances with the European Union concerned the imposition of austerity policies that have put a strain on the Italian economy, and the lack of European solidarity on migration issues. Rome does not want to break with Brussels, but it is set to become a difficult partner.

Artificial intelligence is swiftly moving forward and becoming a real tool of power. This applies to both hard power (military applications) and soft power (economic impact, cultural and political influence, etc.) The United States and China dominate the market and impose their power. Europe is lagging behind and is trying to react by issuing new regulations. As for Africa, it has become a battleground for “digital empires”.

The Oil Market at a Turning Point
Oil prices have been rising again since 2016 due to situational factors such as the worsening of the political situation in Venezuela and the renewal of sanctions against Iran. Rising oil prices favor the extraction of shale oil, which has allowed the US to become the world's largest producer of crude oil. “Peak oil” will result not from the depletion of reserves but from decreasing demand caused by the development of alternative energies.

Israeli Society : Toward Fragmentation ?
Israeli society is becoming fragmented. Four segments live together in relative peace: secularists, religious nationalists, the ultra-orthodox, and Arabs. Each of these segments has political representation. For some years now, the right – combined with the far right – has been in power. Benjamin Netanyahu's popularity has waned very little despite his alleged involvement in several scandals. A number of signals give us reason to fear Israel's illiberal drift.

The French Nuclear Capability in a New Strategic Context
The French people and their leaders are strongly attached to nuclear deterrence, even if some dissenting voices are occasionally heard. Yet the strategic context is about to change, and this may have an impact on France's strategic position. Between Vladimir Putin's saberrattling, Donald Trump's unpredictability, and Europe's own problems – Brexit in particular – today we face numerous uncertainties, leaving the field of possibilities wide open.

Migrations: the European Deadlock
Migration pressure is a fact that is here to stay in the European area. Common minimum standards for the reception of migrants could only be developed within the framework of the EU. The reluctance of countries of arrival, like that of countries of departure, hinders the introduction of an overall system. Moreover, the intransigence of populist governments could result in the outright cessation of any European agreement on migration phenomena.

Jihad and Propaganda Videos: The Case of Boko Haram
Due to the difficulty of accessing warzones, many researchers study insurrectionary or terrorist movements by analyzing propaganda videos. The example of Boko Haram illustrates the limitations of such a method, which fails to recognize the realities on the ground, and places too much emphasis on arguments of a religious nature. Although the propaganda would have us believe in the existence of an international jihadist movement, the sociological dynamics at work in Nigeria invite us to nuance this picture somewhat.