Contenu du sommaire : Le Brexit dans tous ses états

During the referendum campaign in 2016, the question of Brexit's potential consequences for the United Kingdom's place in the world was avoided. The proponents of “Leave” are counting on the special relationship with the United States, participation in multinational institutions, and ties to countries of the Commonwealth to maintain their country's international standing. However, the acrimonious relationship between Donald Trump and Theresa May shows that this wager is a risky one.

Since the June 23, 2016 vote by the people of Britain to leave the European Union, analyses of the economic and financial impact of Brexit on the United Kingdom have multiplied. Apocalyptic or fantastical, objective or biased, these analyses often ignore the most significant impact: the unquantifiable loss of the advantages stemming from the relationship of close collaboration between London and the continent, a collaboration that has been developed over more than half a century.

The United Kingdom only has one land border: the one it shares with the Republic of Ireland. The integration of these two nations into the European Union made this border almost virtual. The exchanges between Ulster and the Republic of Ireland have been many and varied. Reestablishing a physical separation between these two entities is a real conundrum that may give rise to several negative consequences. At this stage, the “Irish question” is still far from resolved.

The history of the United Kingdom's stances on European defense is mixed, with a clear, unconditional, and exclusive devotion to the Atlantic Alliance and, for twenty years, a measured attachment to European progress. London's declaration of intent to maintain a high level of cooperation post-Brexit nonetheless comes with a request for special status that will mostly depend on the results of the overall negotiations. And several specific issues have yet to be resolved.

The democratic deficit of the European Union reveals a two-fold absence: the lack of a real separation of powers and the lack of a European people. Strengthening the powers of the Council could encourage the development of a “second-class democracy.” Real change would be to move towards a European confederacy. However, the choice of this option cannot be separated from the rejection of European subordination, which has been opted for by several member states independently of the will of their people.

Asserting the role of the European Parliament is one response to the criticism of a democratic deficit in the Union. This affirmation remains incomplete, given the very nature of the European Union. The Union should be seen as a “federation in development,” balancing the legitimacy of national democracies with that of the European Parliament. The procedure of naming Spitzenkandidaten, lead candidates of European political parties, makes it possible to strengthen the space for European public debate.

The aim of multilateral trade as established after the Second World War was to prevent trade wars. The creation of the World Trade Organization in 1995 and the establishment of its mechanism for dispute settlement strengthened this multilateralism. Today, Donald Trump is stepping up protectionist measures and seeking to reduce the power of the WTO to zero. The results of the current trade war are far from known.

In a context defined by the failure of military interventions, multiple attacks, and criticized parliamentary elections, uncertainty reigns over the country. Yet the government is holding on and divisions within the Taliban have limited the latter's advances. While the arrival of ISIS has introduced a problem that has mobilized external actors, the main question remains the continuation of dialog with the Taliban. Afghan society is on the move, but its future is still unclear.

The Rohingya issue involves a complex national and regional history. The marginalization and exclusion of the Rohingya people from the communities that form Myanmar were aggravated by the crisis in the summer of 2017. The attitude of the Myanmar government is mainly an expression of the army's dominance, which has support from the country's most nationalist elements. In this crisis, ASEAN has above all proven its ineffectiveness, and the UN was unable to circumvent the Chinese veto. For now, no lasting solution seems close.

Libya is now de facto divided into multiple entities. The efforts made by the international community toward reconciliation and reunification of the country have failed. A government of national unity has been put in place, but it has struggled to take control and respond to the needs of the population. From a Western perspective, the situation is less of a cause for concern than in the past, especially since ISIS has lost territory.

To understand the chaotic relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea – the second newest inde-pendent state in Africa – we have to return to the beginning of the twentieth century and the consequences of the many actions of the major powers in the region. The confrontation between Addis-Ababa and Asmara, a war lasting thirty or fifty years, seems to have evolved into a dialogue. Is the heritage of a common history and culture enough to ensure peace, despite the dictatorial aspects of the Eritrean regime?

Despite the development of artificial intelligence (AI) only being in its early stages, it has already had an impact on armed forces. Some weapons systems are now automatically able to determine their targets. In time, the progress of AI could lead to a true military revolution and even a change in the human relationship to war. The most pessimistic prognosticators envisage apocalyptic scenarios, but the worst is by no means inevitable.

The proto-state established by ISIS in the Syrian-Iraqi area has collapsed. Yet the terrorist organization has not disappeared, and groups linked to Al-Qaeda also remain very active. Jihadism is a global threat that not only affects the Arab world, but also sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. Today, Europe is better situated than the United States to spearhead the fight against this threat, a fight that requires the root causes of Jihadism to be confronted.