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Occurring against backdrop of the Asian crisis but also the crisis of the NPT review process the Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests could have consequences far more greater than had been envisaged by their devisers. They reinforce the feeling that the non-proliferation system ― which is currently facing fresh difficulties in Irak and North Korea ― is going through particularly difficult phase. In strategic terms the tests will not merely alter the balance of power in South Asia ; they are directly affecting Indo-Chinese relations and indirectly many other strategic relations in Asia, where the united States and Russia also act as major powers.

Nuclearization of South Asia and Its Conséquences, by Munir Ahmad Khan The nuclearization of South Asia is linked to India's thirst for power and her bellicose attitude towards her neighbours, of which Pakistan is the victim. Pakistan was thus forced to react to the Indian tests. This new configuration is affecting the region's economie development and political stability. It could easily have repercussions on the nearby regions, the non-proliferation system and, by extension, on the process of nuclear disarmament as a whole. The solution therefore requires that India renounce her policy of nuclear proliferation and that the disputes ― particularly the Kashmir issue — be settled.

India's Security After the Nuclear Tests, by Brahma Chellaney India's recent nuclear-weapons tests will help instil a sense of security in the world's second most populous nation, which faces two nuclear-armed, closely aligned adversaries. India's real test, however, has only now begun: the tests were the crucial but first step, and a long, tough road lies ahead for the country. India faces formidable challenges to build a credible nuclear deterrent especially against China. Fissile-material and financial constraints indicate India will be able to build a very small nuclear arsenal, whose small size will impose high reliability and protection standards.

The Indian and Pakistani Nuclear Tests and Non-Proliferation, by Marie-Hélène Labbé The Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests are tolling the knell of the post-Cold War era by showing that the power race — of which nuclear weapons are a major vector — is not obsolete in the age of globalization. The Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests have revealed the helplessness and contradictions of American non-proliferation policy and have weakened the non-proliferation system. However, the latter might be strengthened if India and Pakistan were to sign the technical treaties, if the nuclear States were to solemnize their commitment to non-proliferation and, particularly, if China were to agree to behave as a responsible protagonist. Tne system would then emerge strengthened from this crisis, as it would be more universal and more democratie.

Greenhouse Effect and Emission Quotas: the Challenges of a New Form of International Trade, by Olivier Godard In spite of all-pervasive differences between States, an international Convention on global climate change was adopted in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992 and followed by the Kyoto Protocol in December 1997. The latter introduced binding quantitative targets for industrial countries and, at the level of basic principles, mechanisms providing flexibility in the choice of national strategies. Such mechanisms are based on the 'emissions trading' concept. What can be learned from the diplomatic process about the ability of international negotiations to introduce cost-effective means of implementation ? What are the critical issues related to emissions trading for France in the post-Kyoto context ? Behind emissions we find issues of huge cost-savings, strategic flexibility and democracy in energy choices, while at the same time legitimate fears concern possible distortions of international competitiveness of industry and non-compatibility with green tax reforms. On paper, possible deviations can be mastered, since solutions do exist. The political will to implement them is more questionable.

The Globalization Debate: Lessons of the Past, by Dani Rodrik By letting markets play an ever-greater rôle and by calling the welfare state into question, globalization is affecting the labour market and income distribution, generating tensions between those who benefit and those who are still excluded from the process and consequently weakening the post-war social contract. In the context of a globalized economy, national governments nevertheless retain an essential role, and national sovereignty ail its prerogatives. Globalization is therefore not irreversible. It is all the more fragile in that it revives the dilemma between markets' inegalitarian logic and democracy's egalitarian logic. Now global capitalism will only be able to survive if it relies on a political legitimacy which only national States can guarantee, particularly by developing their own specifie models.

Should One Believe in the "Revolution in Military Affairs?", by Bruno Tertrais The Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) has become a central theme in the post-Cold War strategie debate. The concept is fuzzy and there is no consensus on its scope and significance. But there are indeed evolutions in the field of information technology that are going to bring about changes in the conduct of warfare. They may ultimately after the very nature of defense and strategy. But there are limits to what the RMA can actually achieve in conflicts. And for the moment, the Pentagon maintains a half-hearted attitude towards the RMA. In any case, there are some important political stakes underlying the debate. Despite some misperceptions, the RMA is not designed to be an instrument of US leadership over Europe, and the issue of the technology gap between the two sides of the Atlantic is a complex and multifaceted one. There is no reason why Europeans should take for granted the existence of an RMA.

Kosovo: One Crisis May Conceal Another, by Xavier Bougarel In their haste to denounce the rise of nationalistic feelings in the Balkans, many observers disregard another facet of reality in the Balkans: the fragility of national identities and State institutions. In the 1980s Kosovo became the scène of a confrontation between two radically opposed nationalist projects whose contradictions and limits and, more generally, the disintegration of the communities to which they relate, explain the recent exacerbation of the crisis between the Serb and Albanian communities, marked as they are by deep historical and cultural rifts. Are we heading towards the establishment of a Greater Albania or a new Albano-Albanian war?

"The Dutch Model", by Henri Chavranski Since 1982 the government, employers' organizations and trade unions have been applying in concert a general policy that has been made possible by soli-darity, pragmatism and the constant search for consensus. An intelligent specialization of the economy, the discovery of natural gas and membership of a stable currency zone have strengthened the model. A spectacular drop in unemployment, balanced growth and social policy have only one counterpart: a low level of participation in work, due to the growth of part-time work and above ail the invalidity pension scheme. The Dutch model is neither a mirage nor a miracle and deserves to be examined closely and contemplated.