Contenu du sommaire : L'enjeu stratégique russe

The fourth round of the Rostrum (la Chaire) for major contemporary strategic challenges focuses on Russia. Russia has once again become a major international player, adopting frequently challenged positions. Dialogue with Moscow remains essential during this period of tension but must not be undertaken with any sense of subservience.

The principal purpose of the Rostrum (la Chaire) is to afford the opportunity for a broad look at the major stakes for France and Europe through analyses of the challenges posed and of the complex role of Russia in international disorder. The future of democracy depends on skilful ability to manage crises.

Russian society has evolved considerably but remains deeply attached to Europe, even if perceptions on either side currently appear to be somewhat divergent—particularly on the nature of the relationship between Russia and EU countries. Russia owes to itself to be clearer if it is to prepare well for the future.

Russian foreign policy has been evolving for a number of years. Its is characterised by increased hardening of policy towards the United States and Europe, which turns more to confrontation than cooperation. Recovery of mutual confidence is urgently needed.

Russian nuclear strategy is essentially an extension of Soviet doctrine. Deliberately maintained confusion demonstrates that the use of nuclear and conventional weapons is not strictly controlled, which leads to further strategic uncertainty.

Russian foreign policy is closely linked to the constant need to boost president Putin's legitimacy in the face of a population swamped with nationalist propaganda that depicts the United States and NATO not as partners but as potential adversaries.

Relations between the European Union and its Eastern neighbours and Russia are far from simple despite the will to move forward and to avoid creating a new division in continental Europe. This is not through lack of offering constructive dialogue; more that Moscow needs to accept that it must change its tone.

The Russia-NATO relationship is complex, fragile and filled with mistrust. Moscow's attitude remains hostile, permanently strengthening its forces and making intensive use of disinformation. NATO must not over-react: on the contrary, it should seek opportunities for dialogue and détente.

Putin's regime has pushed aside democratic principles in establishing an impenetrable system around the personality of the president. This system is leading to an aggressive and nationalist attitude from the Kremlin that marginalises the educated classes of the country and interferes in recent electoral campaigns in the West.

Since the conflict in Georgia, Moscow has revised and modernised its military doctrine, allocating new assets to its forces so that they are able to act over a far wider range of operations. Seen from the Kremlin, recent operations have confirmed the wisdom of the choices made.

Russia practises large-scale disinformation, using all available resources to destabilise beyond its borders. Whilst some countries have recognised the scale of the risk, others have not done so and have become channels for the false information manipulated by Moscow.

Relations between the European Union and its member countries and Russia have deteriorated. The quarrels between the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and Russia have enhanced the risk of accentuating divisions and increasing the risk of uncontrolled slide into catastrophic consequences.

The technical capabilities of the submarine make it a strategic platform. Progress advanced rapidly with the advent of nuclear propulsion, and the submarine became indispensible. Soviet, later Russian, policy on the matter is an example of an ambitious strategic policy.

Much remains unknown about the space under the sea, and it is an entire world that remains to be explored scientifically. The need for knowledge about it is essential, particularly for strategic reasons to ensure our security and independence in the face of new threats.

The submarine weapon is intrinsically high-tech: many skills are required to master it, and they require long-term investment. French industry dedicated to the field means the country is a top-ranking international player and is able to preserve its capability for innovation.

DCNS is the heir to a long industrial and naval tradition and contributes directly to the strength of our national sovereignty by developing special industrial capabilities that boost our exports in defence products and as a result consolidate our economic sovereignty to the benefit of our own defence.

The Air Force is committed to overseas operations whilst at the same time it has been ensuring the nuclear deterrent and air defence missions for over 50 years. Aviators also conduct numerous other actions for the nation in collaboration with national, regional and local authorities.

Since their origins, air support has been intrinsic to special operations and is the guarantor of their effectiveness. In order to preserve the advantages of air power, we need to pursue the capability development of the Air Force, particularly in the fields of C2, ISR, intervention and projection.

The Patroller drone is a derivative of a certified aircraft and was selected by the Army in 2016. Its development is underway with a view to entering operational service from 2019. Decisions taken in these matters since 2009 are boosting French drone capabilities in intelligence gathering and observation.

The Balkans remains an unstable area, prey to numerous uncertainties regarding its identity and future. The fundamentally nationalist countries in the region are fragile by nature and are having difficulty in overcoming their differences in order to propose a common, federating overall plan.

Is the aircraft carrier still needed today? The issue merits debate, especially given the high cost of the ship and the need to make an analysed and well-argued choice that also considers other options.

The ÉPIDE (Établissement pour l'insertion dans l'emploi) is an original idea for an establishment to help youngsters both by virtue of its organisation and by its aim to allow young people in difficulty to receive training and to enter professional life whilst at the same time acquiring the ability to become a responsible citizen. Since 2005 the ÉPIDE has been adapting to change while retaining a military spirit in order to teach the principles of living in society to those young ‘volunteers for insertion'.

Under pressure from Islamic terrorist attacks, European intervention units have made advances in the field of cooperation, though much remains to be done. One particular matter to be studied further is the divergence in threat assessment and in the response to be made.

Japan is looking again at the question of military use of nuclear power, given the growing ambitions of its neighbours. Though from a technological standpoint Tokyo would appear to be in a position to acquire atomic weapons rapidly, politically there is considerable reticence: Japanese public opinion remains fundamentally hostile to the issue.