Contenu du sommaire : Climat : quelle marche suivre ?

At COP26, a long-term target to keep global warming below 1.5°C was set. This goal is inconsistent with the commitments that the signatory countries have made in terms of reducing their greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. To speed up the transition, they must agree to financial transfers of a greater magnitude, introduce real and redistributive international carbon pricing, and take steps to phase out fossil fuels.

Global warming and the necessity of drastically reducing greenhouse gas emissions mean that tomorrow's energy systems need to be fundamentally redefined. Industries and organizations must urgently embark on this huge task of transformation. If decarbonization is to be achieved, it will require consistent energy policies, an inclusive approach, and sustained investment in technological innovation.

Africa is both a victim of climate change and a growing contributor to it. It also represents a partial solution, thanks to the richness of its natural environment. Given the continent's needs, the limited amount of climate finance that has been forthcoming has generated intractable frustration. To resolve this impasse, the focus must move to how to support sustainable growth, which will benefit Africans, environmental equilibrium, and the global economy.

During COP26, Beijing and the Biden administration committed to reviving Sino-American cooperation on climate issues, in the name of their common interest in climate stability. However, their attempt to isolate this question from the numerous disagreements between China and the United States has a slim chance of success. The two biggest global emitters must improve the general framework of their bilateral relations so that they can then work closely and effectively on the climate.

The undeniable failure of NATO in Afghanistan was due to a number of factors: belated definition of the mission; multiple tasks including security, reconstruction, support with development, and training local forces; new asymmetric conflict; and imperfect cohesion between allies. The negative effect on the Alliance's reputation is clear. It must redefine its strategy around its priority mission of keeping Europe secure and the forms of hybrid conflict ahead.

The process of withdrawing Western troops from Afghanistan was badly managed by the Europeans. The European Union, which is currently already engaged in a number of external operations, does however have the means to make decisions and to act: institutions such as the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), European Defence Fund, and Permanent Structured Cooperation. The European Intervention Initiative and the Strategic Compass, which should soon be made public, will reinforce these means of intervention, potentially making 2022 the European Year of Defence.

Ethiopia has been in a state of civil war since November 2020. The hostilities have already gone through several phases. At first, the central powers attempted to crush the Tigray rebellion, but the latter launched a spectacular and successful counteroffensive. Feeling threatened, Abiy Ahmed's regime reacted strongly, helped by supplies of arms from abroad. As 2022 begins, the situation is highly unstable and there is no end in sight to the conflict.

Trapped between Shi'ite, Sunni, and Kurdish agendas, the Iraqi system lacks the internal strength to reform itself. It therefore operates under external influence from either global powers (the United States of America) or regional ones (Iran, Turkey, etc.). Arab countries, in particular Saudi Arabia, appear to want to renew links with the country, while the European Union seems to be rethinking its strategic approach. These partnerships could facilitate internal balance, allowing Iraq to move away from the specter of civil war.

Boris Johnson is an unusual individual who was able to attract the support of a significant proportion of the British people, including in working-class strongholds. His determination to complete Brexit won him the 2019 General Election, but once he became Prime minister he was heavily criticized for his chaotic management of events. Faced with scandals and accused of harming democracy, he may be forced to leave power early.

The February 2021 coup encountered a level of resistance that the military did not expect: demonstrations, boycotts, and a slide toward an armed resistance against repression from the authorities. All the pieces for a true civil war are in place. Meanwhile, ASEAN shows itself to be powerless, the West responds feebly, and Russia and China discreetly support the military regime to protect their strategic interests: the Silk Road corridor and arms sales.

The US sanctions reinstated in 2018 and the pandemic have reinforced Iran's isolation and economic challenges: impoverishment of the middle class, inflation, currency collapse, and brain drain. Only the lifting of sanctions and unfreezing of Iranian assets held abroad could, via the restarting of trade flows and oil exports, improve the country's economic situation and shore up the regime's popular support, which has been crumbling since 2009.

International drug trafficking is increasing. Most of the illicit goods are transported by sea, with drug traffickers using boats and a variety of methods to better evade the authorities. However, seizures are also increasing. In the future, new technologies should allow anti-trafficking forces to be even more effective.

The countries of Europe are officially preparing for a Russian aggression that will not take place, and which their armies would have no chance of resisting without considerable US support. The time has come for them to ready themselves to respond to the real challenges threatening their security: renewed destabilization in the Balkans and the implosion of West Africa. This can be achieved if they make considerable changes to their global strategy and their approach to organizing their forces.