Contenu du sommaire : Ukraine-Russie : rupture géopolitique

The war in Ukraine might appear to be a return to the Cold War, and yet it is principally ideological. Today, it is above all a major geopolitical conflict which is calling into question the liberal globalisation that started after the collapse of Soviet communism.

It was on 24 February that Moldavia, the small Latin country in Eastern Europe, appeared on the map. Situated on the border between Romania and Ukraine its capital, Chişinău, has to contend with two territories, the breakaway Transnistria and the autonomous Gagauzia. Either—or both—could dramatically alter the destiny of the Moldavians.

The war started by Russia against Ukraine is rekindling the sensitive issue of Christian Orthodoxy, whose exceedingly complex structures are steeped in history. Vladimir Putin sought to instrumentalise the religion for geopolitical ends whilst risking long-term divisions in the orthodox world.

Information is an essential weapon in crisis situations, though democracies and authoritarian regimes have very different approaches to it. Authoritarian regimes adopt it to spread disinformation, whereas democracies can use it to strengthen their position and counter the threat by remaining open societies.

The war against Ukraine has already dealt a number of lessons for Europe, among which its relative military weakness. These lessons are hard to accept,but an initial result has been a recognition of the need for unity and for the strengthening of defence, now more than ever necessary.

Central and Eastern Europeis often referred to simply as ‘the East' for many reasons, not least of which a complex history and almost permanent state of change. Since the fall of the Wall, civil societies have been able to transcend ancient mistrust to rebuild themselves and establish closer relationships. The current crisis is opening up new perspectives.

Russia's war imposed upon Ukraine is opening up a major geopolitical crisis which is calling into question all of the power balances established in Europe. This could be the opportunity for Europe to grasp its destiny once more, and to establish a common, open ambition for the future.

European history is notable for its wars, and thus for the treaties that have ratified military victories and defeats. Some of these agreements have achieved lasting solutions to resolve antagonisms, whereas others have failed to reconcile the protagonists. That said, diplomacy remains the only way to put an end to war.

The crisis between Ukraine and Russia is taking place at a complex level of civilisation in which a major element is the religious factor. The autocephalous tradition of the Orthodox churches is embedded in the historical rivalry between the patriarchs of Moscow and Constantinople.

The war in Ukraine has highlighted the question of the Sea of Azov, which is now under Russian control, thus depriving Ukraine of one of its accesses to the Black Sea and therefore to the Mediterranean. Maritime matters are always complex for any essentially continental power.

Faced with growing security challenges, Europe needs to move forward with its strategic autonomy. That requires a joint, pragmatic approach by NATO and the EU, particularly in the capability field in order to strengthen the European DITB. The French Presidency of the Council of the European Union offers the opportunity to favour this expansion.

Extraterritoriality of law is tending to expand to the detriment of national sovereignty, in turn weakening our defence industries in an aggressively competitive environment. Because of this, there is a need for a coordinated, prescriptive reponse within the framework of the European Union.

French sovereignty needs to be consolidated over the long term, looking ahead to 2050. That requires innovation and duality of technologies yet to be developed. It also means synergies have to be established on a European scale, hence the necessity to gain the support of public opinion on security matters.

The teaching of defence, which has for long been the privilege of military staff alone, has now entered the French and European academic sphere. A number of initiatives is being developed which will contribute to a better approach to strategic challenges and offer some definite advances with regard to the conflict in Ukraine.

Defending Europe has been a sensitive subject since the fall of the Wall, with varying approaches, both complementary and competitive. Between NATO, with its reassuring but insufficient virtues, and the EU, which has for long objected to the notion of power, Europe has to find its way in order to confront strategic challenges.

Conflict refers to the antagonism between two parties, each considering itself legitimate and justifying its right to act. It is worth reflecting on the notion of the enemy from a moral standpoint, since the enemy is the malevolent. From this we have the opposing forces of benevolence and malevolence in warfare.

Following Brexit and the departure of London, new balances need to be found in Europe. The Paris-Berlin axis is in serious difficulty. Rome is recovering an interesting position and the France-Italy relationship could prove beneficial to the rest of Europe, but only if Paris puts an end to its condescension.

The Covid-19 pandemic has demonstrated the weaknesses in initial responses and the need henceforth to consider and work on a far wider scale, by definition international. The European dimension is therefore pertinent and will contribute to improving public health and safety for the French population.

Control over intelligence services carries political stakes in countries with democratic regimes.
Transparency is not automatic but is nevertheless necessary to progress towards better acceptance of the role of the services by citizens now ever more sensitive to the question.

Okinawa has a special place in the Sino-American relationship. US military presence there has been massive ever since the battle in the spring of 1945. Despite a degree of dispute on the island, Tokyo does not question the central role Okinawa plays for Washington.

France considers itself an actor in the Indo-Pacific region by virtue of its presence linked to its various overseas territories. Nevertheless, that is not sufficient to support the role of a regional power, since other components are needed—including economic support.

When faced with domestic difficulties or political obstacles autocratic regimes have tended to try their luck in external adventures, thinking they would boost nationalist feelings. Such headlong flights generally end in failure, often the prelude to collapse of the regime.