Contenu du sommaire : La guerre en Ukraine et le monde d'après…

Vladimir Putin's Russia is engaged in a major confrontation not only with Ukraine but also with countries claiming to represent democracy and the West. The latter did not see—or chose not to see—developments within Putin's totalitarian regime towards imperialist ambitions.

The war in Ukraine is completely changing the game with regard to global geopolitics. As Russia risks straying into lasting and regrettable isolation, Europe is recognising its strategic impotence and its numerous dependencies, including that on the United States.

The media battle is one of the major components of the conflict, with the presentation of perceptions aimed at gaining the support of public opinion. To date, Volodymyr Zelensky has shown greater skill than Vladimir Putin, whose communication appears completely out of touch and counter-productive.

Since 1810 Sweden has had a policy of neutrality which has relied on strong defence. During the Cold War, the Swedes maintained a solid military structure which has nevertheless been reduced since the 1990s. With the war against Ukraine, the question of membership of NATO is becoming central.

The current war is highlighting the importance of the Black Sea, the control of which is strategic. Russia has its sights clearly set on this control, the aim being to isolate Ukraine. And yet the 1936 Montreux Convention limits Moscow's potential and gives Turkey a far from negligible role.

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has already offered a considerable number of operational lessons, with failures in the deployment of the operational echelon, which is so important to Russian doctrine—itself a direct derivation from the Soviet model. For the benefit of our own forces, we need to analyse Moscow's errors.

Contemporary history of the Balkans has been complex and painful, with schisms built on geopolitical rivalries. The European Union and NATO have woken up to the need to renew their action to achieve better association of the countries in the region and hence to reduce the risk of conflict.

Accession of Balkan countries to the European Union is a laborious process, given that the position of states in the region with regard to the integration criteria leaves much to be desired. Nevertheless, faced with the entryism of powers such as Russia, Turkey and China, it is urgent that the EU offer a genuine perspective.

Thirty years after the cleavage of Yugoslavia, Europe has invested much, and remains active through its efforts to develop effective instruments to counter nationalist leanings. The crisis in Ukraine has boosted the need to maintain this action in order to preserve an ever-fragile peace.

The reality of Islamic radicalisation in the Western Balkans is the result of the break-up of Yugoslavia, which facilitated the transit of terrorists from the Middle East into Europe. Hence the need for the EU to maintain a presence and to contribute to fighting this threat.

Countries of the Western Balkans have increased their defence efforts for reasons of varying ambiguity, often marked by renewed nationalist attitudes. Although there seems little risk of war, the European Union must remain vigilant and maintain an interest in the future of the Balkans.

The war in Ukraine has led to increasing fractures in the Balkans. Some states have chosen to support Kiev while others, such as Serbia, remain fixed on maintaining close links with Russia in the name of Slavic unity. All of which means Europe needs to show greater interest in this already fragile region.

Before its political break-up, Yugoslavia was an innovative cultural centre that livened up the conformist burden of the Communist system. This artistic history contributed to liberating public opinion from the patterns of expression then in force.

The nature of conflict has evolved enormously and is seeing new players deployed on the ground. Strategic competitors have seen the value of employing defence and security services companies. It would be wise for France to consider such an action which could boost its operational capabilities.

As war rages in Ukraine, the defence of Europe has once again become a priority, with a solid commitment of the European Union and NATO. There is now an urgent need to improve cooperation processes between the two institutions through more effective mechanisms.

The military alliance between South Korea and the United States has strengthened in recent years following periods of doubt and questioning. The relationship is strong today, aided by a probable rapprochement with the Quad. For Washington, Seoul is a model and reliable ally.

Sino-American rivalry is growing in a number of areas, one of which is the economy. From interdependence to open competition, the two powers see their economies as competitors. There is a genuine monetary war between the dollar and the yuan, evidence for which is Beijing's increasingly powerful armed forces.

Defence and security matters are essential issues for Europe in the light of the crisis in the East. It is important that the young accept and participate in building a soundly-based defence spirit and commit to a movement to strengthen Europe's solidarity and democracy.

The Indo-Pacific region has become the new global geostrategic centre of gravity, given China's openly-declared ambitions. Given this, French Polynesia has become much coveted and would appear sensitive to Beijing's proposed projects. Paris therefore needs to increase its effort.

NATO was established at the beginning of the 1950s in response to the Soviet threat. Following the fall of the Wall the break-up of the former Yugoslavia allowed it to recover its raison d'être. As a founding member despite its withdrawal in 1966, France has maintained strong links whilst underlining its independence.