Contenu du sommaire : L'Occident au risque du Sud global ?

The chaos of war has been with us since February 2022. We must therefore move from a tempo suited to crisis resolution to one needed to respond to frontal chaos. In turn, this means we need to think differently, of the long term, and take into account the complexity that dominates life today. We need to think again about war: that is the responsibility of the Defence Staff.

The new reality of the worldwide security situation is rapidly pushing NATO towards a major transformation. Such change is essential for NATO to be able to face future challenges. Multi-domain operations in multiple environments, digital transformation and the rapid advances offered by artificial intelligence (AI) are all factors for accelerating developments in the Alliance for the benefit of our security.

The Global South is said to be acting against the Collective West which, according to some ideologists, is on the decline. In fact, there are numerous limits and clear ambiguities surrounding this highly fluid notion. There is a need to promote dialogue and boost multilateral cooperation.

The concept of a Global South is somewhat unconvincing, as it offers too simplistic a view of geopolitical, economic and social realities. Africa is a good illustration of this: countries there are pursuing distinctly different aims. The development of the African continent remains a major challenge—for its essential partner, Europe, too.

The highly diverse West is finding itself on the defensive in the face of the increasing influence of countries in the south. Encouraged by Russia and China, the latter are upsetting the order established during the post-1945 period. We nevertheless need to work together to build a viable future in a multi-polar world, yet to do so will require a West that is capable of reasserting its attractiveness.

Confrontation, competition, rivalry and complementarity: the West and the Global South are each suffering complex fractures which result from a growing number of misunderstandings and questioning of beliefs hitherto thought to be soundly-based. The international order is evolving pitilessly, carrying with it with the risk of sinking into chaos, should we forget the essence of humanity.

The concept of Global South, as advanced by some, is simplistic—dangerous, even—since it mixes too many notions and creates unconvincing divisions. That said, one has to acknowledge this geopolitical fact with the questions it raises and the legitimate doubts of a number of countries regarding their multilateral relationships.

The Institut des hautes études de défense nationale (IHEDN—The Institute for Advanced Studies in National Defence) has since 2014 awarded scientific prizes aimed at rewarding young doctors and second-year masters students. These prizes are part of the Institute's desire to support future strategic planning.

The Great War led to a decisive growth in cryptology. Because of the degree of secrecy surrounding the subject, there is little open-source documentation. Recruitment of cryptographers has always been complex by virtue of the requirement for distinctly different profiles, particular skills and knowledge of foreign languages. Though it remains little known, the French cypher contributed directly to the war effort.

President Erdogan repeatedly calls on Turkish history in order to revive his imperial vision of politics. He emphasises the value of Ottoman heritage even when presenting his plan for a space programme, seen as a tool for new-found sovereignty and the expansion of Turkish influence.

The period from 1960 to 1980 witnessed a complex relationship between the French people and their armed forces. There existed a latent anti-military sentiment, notably among the politically left opposition. This distrust forced the military establishment to change and to take better account of the aspirations of conscripts and the need for improved recognition of career personnel. These changes resulted in broad consensus on defence matters.

Considerable international homage was paid to Henry Kissinger on his death at the age of 100. He played a major role in twentieth-century diplomacy and his influence is lasting. His legacy has certainly been disputed, on the question of human rights in particular, but he enabled bridges to be built during the Cold War period.

A major and permanent information war is now being waged. Imagery is becoming a weapon that is easily manipulated digitally to permit wide-scale disinformation. Social media are playing their part in the increasing rate of informational disorder to the detriment of the truth.

The war started by Hamas against Israel on 7 October 2023 began an infernal spiral towards extremes of action which are cruelly challenging the accepted standards of the laws of armed conflict. Added to that, the millennialist and antagonist dimensions make any perspective of dialogue even more difficult. War continues to rage: what might happen afterwards remains way beyond the horizon.

The war in Ukraine continues to offer many lessons to be learned, one being that tactical stalemate is currently undermining the concept of Blitzkrieg, intended to force decision-making by shock and mobility. We should be seeking to regenerate the capabilities to allow us to exploit the principles of manoeuvre, drawing on those defined by Marshal Foch over a century ago.

Although France was a founder member of NATO in 1949, its relationship with the Alliance is very different from that of Germany, which sees its defence only through total integration within the military structure. In contrast to Bonn, latterly Berlin, Paris has always favoured its strategic independence. The two powers nevertheless remain essential partners.

The Italian campaign of 1943 was not the success that had been expected. Despite the Italian change of allegiance, the Allies had to work hard to overcome the various defensive lines established by German troops. The difficulties of mountainous terrain and of the climate severely hampered the Allied forces' mobility.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy's presence at the investiture of Javier Milei, the new Argentine head of state, was a demonstration of a major change of direction for South America's second power. Milei's somewhat libertarian positions run counter to those of Brazil and Nicaragua. We now need to watch closely the effects of the Buenos Aires reforms.