Contenu du sommaire : L'Intelligence artificielle ou la course à la puissance

While the United States currently dominates in the field of artificial intelligence, China is clearly hard on their heels. In the shadow of this Sino-American duopoly, Europe is often presented as a mere “normative power,” but it, too, has industrial assets. Within Europe, the United Kingdom and Germany are both ahead of France, but alongside states, it's above all large tech firms that have the capacity to invest and innovate.

As generative and predictive artificial intelligence tools become available to a wider public, they are sending shockwaves through the international community and bringing about radical changes, chiefly to the benefit of asymmetric actors and major tech firms. AI is also equipping states with enhanced diplomatic, military, intelligence, and information-manipulation capabilities. However, this technological asset is also fraught with risks, requiring the development and implementation of complex international regulations.

The wars in Ukraine and Gaza show us the extent to which artificial intelligence (AI) has become integral to battlefield operations. This technology is used in many ways, from intelligence analysis to targeting, logistics, and communications. It has accelerated the pace of operations to such a degree that the time available for human operators to take firing decisions has been reduced to just a few seconds. To prevent this trend from spiraling out of control, military applications of AI must be strictly regulated.

As the use of artificial intelligence becomes increasingly widespread, the development of scientific evaluation techniques is crucial for containing potential threats. The invention and continual refinement of these methods will hinge on in-depth scientific cooperation, bolstered by renewed international cooperation. Only then will it be possible for AI to develop in strict adherence to essential human values, without escaping the control of its creators and developers.

The applications of artificial intelligence have developed rapidly since Chat
GPT became available online. Malicious actors have been quick to exploit the capabilities of AI for phishing, disinformation campaigns, and piracy, but AI can also augment cybersecurity capabilities. As things currently stand, it is not clear whether the advantage will fall to the attacking or the defending side. In any case, new forms of regulation are in order.

Should the Democrats prevail in the upcoming election, their approach to diplomacy will no doubt follow in Biden's footsteps: a return to multilateralism and “a foreign policy for the middle class,” with the fight against climate change and technological competition. In this respect, the rivalry with China will remain central. We may also witness renewed efforts to pivot to the Global South, while the “return to Europe” prompted by the war in Ukraine could ultimately take a back seat.

For the last fifteen years, successive American presidents have attached increasing importance to the Indo-Pacific region. However, due to continuing crises in the Middle East, and then the war in Ukraine, they have not yet been able to implement the Obama administration's much-touted “pivot to Asia.” Whoever wins the 2024 US presidential election will be looking to strengthen the US position in the Indo-Pacific and contain the rise of China.

The states of the South Caucasus are trying to find their footing in an increasingly fragmented international landscape. Beyond regional issues such as the future of democracy in Georgia and peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, global rivalries between the major powers are intensifying over how the region might best be opened up: should the South Caucasus be open to all, and thus to the West, or is it the preserve of the Eurasian powers?

With the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and then the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has sought to strengthen its control over the Black Sea; but certain NATO and EU member states also have coastlines along this stretch of water. Beyond Europe, grain exports from Black Sea ports are integral to the food security of many developing countries. The future security of Europe will be significantly affected by what unfolds on its shores.

The Indian Prime minister set ambitious aims for his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the legislative elections of 2024. The campaign was bitterly fought, with BJP candidates brandishing an ethno-nationalist, anti-Muslim rhetoric. The result appears to represent a kind of disavowal of Modi's politics: his party is now clearly in retreat, and his absolute majority has been lost. The BJP remains the country's principal political organization but now depends on alliances to stay in power.

In the twentieth century, Shia Islam underwent a major shift following the Islamic revolution in Iran, which promoted the doctrine of Wilāyat al-Faqīh. Adopted by Lebanese Hezbollah, this theory confers the power to govern the Ummah exclusively upon theologian-jurists. Despite local reservations, Hezbollah is attempting to spread this doctrine in Lebanon, sparking controversy over its loyalty toward the country, a loyalty that may increasingly be called into question in the aftermath of October 23, 2023.

The realist school of international relations sees states as the only actors in a global system. Other theorists claim to the contrary that non-state and sub-state actors also have a role to play. In practice, networks of cities of have been created, but the term “city diplomacy” is still viewed with skepticism. Recent years have seen a “return of the state,” leaving little room for local authorities to undertake independent action on the world stage.

The elections held in Europe in 2024 share three notable characteristics: the domination of the European People's Party (EPP), the fragmentation of the political spectrum, and the steady drift rightward under growing pressure from far-right parties. With the exception of France and Germany, where populist groups are gaining ground, the European Union is witnessing the development of a new trend—post-populism—with a noticeable narrowing of the rift between the people and the elite.

The importance of corporate social responsibility (CSR) and of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria has grown steadily since the beginning of the century. Europe has led the way in this area, developing the first non-financial rating agencies. These have subsequently been bought up by American interests. As the battle over standards rages, it appears that the stakes are not just economic, but also political.