Contenu du sommaire : Stratégies de croissance et marchés émergents

The role of the exchange rate in the growth of emerging countries The 1990's were marked by a spectacular surge in « emerging » economies. The paper adresses the main characteristics of their exchange rate and convertibility regimes, and analyses the consequences of theses regimes on the countries' macro-economic equilibrium. More flexible regimes, and to a lesser extent the reduction of convertibility restrictions, seem to have underpinned the markets development. In the last three years, this seems to have induced a harmonization of real exchange rates movements. There is a clear trend of real appreciation of the currencies against the dollar. Countries also experienced excessive inflows of capital, beyond their financing needs. They hence lost their ability to use the exchange rate as an instrument of economic policy, with sometimes very negative consequences (most noticeable in the case of Mexico).

Emerging markets : an overview The development of emerging markets is based on growing private capital flows since the beginning of the 90's. The first part of this article is devoted to an analysis of these flows, underlying volatility and return considerations and the question of the articulation between the real and the financial spheres. Then, we focus on policies which should be implemented to promote and monitor emerging markets, regarding the domestic and international aspects of coordination.

Strengths and deficiences of emerging markets This paper, written during 1996 summer, investigates strenghs and deficiencies of emerging markets just after the mexican crisis and before Asian market ones. It revelates that, after 1994, their rapid revival was motivated by a large growth differential which benefited to "second world" countries. This swing provi­ded a more stronger motive than before to their developpment. The risk premium measure demonstrates that, since 1995, it became quite interesting to diversify inside of the emerging market group itself. Nevertheless, this recovery after the "Tequila effect" has no to hidden the serious and recurrent deficiencies of these emerging markets. Not only real exchange rate misalignments, but desadjustment of external capital with internal ones and proportion of short term capitals with long term investments too, are to be mentionned. Weakness of financial sector appears to be an other important destabilizing factor.

An econometric evaluation of external debt sustainability in developping countries This paper introduces and applies a new testing strategy for assessing the sustainability of external debt for a sample of developping countries. Building on one country intertemporal budget constraint, we present alternative definitions of the sustainability property. Retaining a councept of effective net sustainability, we show how this property may be tested as a joint unit root restriction on the joint dynamics of external debt and the current account (or net exports). The gain of power allowed by this approach is illustrated through simulation, and the empirical applications on twelve developping countries result in optimistic conclusions, especially when gross exports are used as normalization variable.

Emerging Market Financing. Potential and Risks Illustrated with a Study of Mexico Financial crises in the 1990s are different from those that occurred previously. First, private investors play a more important role. Second, spill-over effects to other countries are more pronounced and have become a primary source of concern. This study shows that the Mexican crisis was a speculative "bubble". Equity valuations were such that the required growth of expected earnings was far beyond any historic reference value. Combined with the external disequilibria, there was, thus, grounds for expecting the bubble to burst.

Financial constraint and growth in the developing countries The prudential ratios External debt/GDP have been introduced by international lenders to limit credits to some developing countries in order to secure themselves against the risk of default. However, these prudential ratios do not take into account the origin of the shocks. Financial constraints that ration investment are prejudicial to growth. It can indeed induce a « Growth Trap ». The decrease of investment help finance the external debt but implies a long lasting regime of slow growth. In order to precise this « Growth Trap », we develop models with one or two countries. The developing country has the following features: no national financial market, no access to international stock markets, scarcity of physical capital and abundance of labour. Two regimes of goods are distinguished according to the fact that the country is a net exporter or importer. Two regimes of investment are distinguished according to the fact that it is demand determined or financially constrained. The expectations of the growth of demand are rational and endogenous and reveal the constraints.

Public expenditures, natural resources and sectoral growth - a comparison Africa-Asia This article analyses the respective effect of the oil's exports and the public expenditures on the sectoral structure of the exporting countries with a comparison between certain African countries (Cameroun, Nigeria) and certain Asian countries (Malaysia, Indonesia). The empirical analysis allow to show which are the countries among those the exports played an essential role (validation of the thesis of the Dutch disease) and which are the countries among those the role of the public sector was dominating (validation of the models of endogenous growth), and the extend of the phenomenons.

Growth and defence expenditures in asean countries The fascinating growth of several East and South-East Asian economies during the last thirty years has been the subject of numerous analyses in which the influence of defense expenditures is never mentionned. However the effects of defense expenditures on development and growth has been extensively explored by defense economics. The paper examines in what extent this littérature can help for a better understanding of the development of the member Nations of the ASEAN. This connection suggests that this subject cannot be neglect for a comprehensive economic history of these countries.

Interdependence between foreign investment and growth in China : evidence from panel data This article uses a model based on simultaneous equations to examine the relationship between foreign investment and economic growth in Chinese provinces from 1985 to 1995. Although the positive effect of such investment in promoting growth is highlighted by most empirical studies on China, the question of whether an inverse relationship may exist is seldom, if ever, discussed. Using data for a sample of 24 Chinese provinces throughout the 1985-95 period, this paper first shows that the hypothesis that foreign investment is exogenous should be rejected, which in turn entails a need to estimate a growth model comprising a system of simultaneous equations. Such an estimation then confirms, most notably, the fundamental role played by foreign investment in regional economic growth in China. It also serves to underline the importance of the potential for future growth in explaining foreign investment decisions.

Financing growth by foreign debt We illustrate, using a simple theoretical model with overlapping generations, the potential risks associated with the use of foreign investment or of foreign debt to finance growth. We examine the effects of risk, of the possible withdrawal of foreign investors, of changes in interest rates, on the level of investment and on welfare. We analyse if there is a danger of perverse effects channeled by exchange rate changes. We finally compare the economic evolution of Mexico during the recent years and the findings of the theoretical model.

Financial development. Financial reforms and growth : a panel data approach In this paper we revisit the contribution of financial development on growth through panel data regressions based on a panel set covering 82 countries and six five-year periods of time over the years 1960 to 1990. Our results do not confirm the existence of a positive relation between financial development and growth, be it through savings mobilisation or through the quality of its allocation. We resolve this paradox by interpreting the role of financial sector in a multiple equilibra model which generates threshold effects. Such threshold effects are observable in the country fix effects of our regressions.

Economic growth and financial sources of development some econometric estimations using panel data Using panel data estimations we consider the relationships between the past economic growth of 34 countries and the channel they used to provide financial flows to their investment. We consider two different kinds of invesment sources : domestic - by internal financial flows - and external - by international banks and investors - then we estimate successfully some endogeneous growth relationships using the different kinds of financing ways. This paper presents two particularities : - we use as indicators of financing prices and volumes the rating scores built by international banks without any transformation ; - we introduce a dynamic dimension in a panel data estimation.

The optimal financial system architecture in emerging countries The optimal financial system architecture is crucial for emerging economies. We define it here as the share to assign respectively to the bank and to the market within the financial system. In this article, we consider that financial intermedia­tion's importance lies in its capacity to commit in a long-term relationship with the firm and to operate the intertemporal perequations that are necessary to finance long-term projects. To do this, the bank must benefit from some monopoly position. But setting excessive interest rates can induce moral hazard by enticing firms to prefer less efficient, shorter projects. Finally, modeling both these opposite pheno­mena allows us to determine the optimal market structure as regards the socially desirable investment decisions.

Inflation, stabilisation and relative prices in Argentina and Brazil, the experience of the 1990's This papers analyses the stabilisation programes which brought to an end twenty years of high or hyper-inflation, first in Argentina (1991), then in Brazil (1994). Rather than a full disindexation of the economy, as was aimed by the heteredox strategies of the mid-1980's, this new generation of programes aimed at stabilising nominal evolution via the full indexation of the price structure. In Argentina, this took the form of a rigid bimonetary regime, under the form of a rather classic Currency Board. In Brazil, the Piano Real has reconstructed in two steps a fully-fledged, single national currency : first the unit of account function was stabilised, then the unit of payment was exchanged through a standard monetary reform. A remarquable aspect of these two experiences is that, however the con­trast between their respective institutionnal arrangements, the actual constraints bearing on policy makers are very close : most of all, the strength of underlying indexation mechanisms, as the low level of monetisation imply that foreign exchange policy is extremely difficult to manage. In both countries, a sudden, dis­crete devaluation may rapidly cause a sharp acceleration of inflation. This should remain as a long-term sequel of past high inflation, which already imposes heavy constraints on micro-level, real adjustment.

Massive privatisation and macroeconomics : a theoretical model of a small open economy Most of the theoretical research on privatisation analyses the microeconomic-efficiency aspects of public sector divestitures. However, mass privatisation calls for the study of the macroeconomic impact of large scale property transfers. In this paper, we identify the stylised facts revealed by numerous experiences of extensive privatisation and we develop appropriate theoretical framework. We present a simple model of a small open economy to assess the impact of privatisation on aggregate absorption, on public finance and on the balance of payments. The effect on the macroeconomy of alternative schemes of the state property divestiture is discussed : free distribution of shares to private individuals versus sale to domestic residents, "national preference" versus foreign investors participation. Alternative taxation rules and the impact of imperfect capital markets are also discussed. The effect of massive privatisation will differ depending on the choice of the strategy of property divestiture.

Openness and employment in a transition economy : the vietnamese situation A mesoeconomic model including an informal sector reveals that only a strong specialization in labor intensive exportations could prevent a deeper unemploy­ment in Vietnam. Nevertheless, the country could then experience an immiserizing employment growth.

Economic development policy and emerging general corporations in Vietnam This paper aims at applying the transaction costs theory to a fast-developing country, Vietnam, which also has to cope with unification and transition from a centrally planned to a market economy. It will first deal with the current situation ; then, it will try to apply the transaction costs theory to it ; it will eventually take the example of the creation of general corporations.

Achievements and failures of the vietnamese transition The Vietnamese transition began in 1986 when the program of economic and social "renovation" (Doi moi) was adopted. After more than ten years, one may evaluate the progress accomplished toward a market economy, the model of which is given by the neighbouring NICs. In the first part of the paper, the successes of the transition process are assessed: monetary stabilisation without deflation, quasi-equilibrium of the public budget, adjustment to the end of the CMEA, food self-sufficiency. The second part examins the less favourable points, such as a growing trade deficit, the diminution of FDIs, the gap between towns and country, a fast population growth and the deterioration of public services.