Contenu du sommaire : Le IXe Plan

― the acceleration of investment. research and formation, specially in the industrial sector. Modernisation of the productive fabric, the hard core of the ninth Plan strategy, needs a massive and sustained investment programm which allows the economie growth rate to rise and the foreign trade to be brought back into balance and Consolidated thereafter ; ― the earnings distribution. A moderate but increasing rise in earnings is necessary to control inflation and to restore the financial situation of companies ; ― the increase of the domestic saving rate and tJie reorientation of ressources for financing modernization without further recourse to external funds; ― the all-embracing emploi/ment policy (worktime reduction, flexitime) compulsory to fight against unemloyment while the economic growth will only rise progressively and the productivity growth will remain important.

Industrial mutations and IXth plan Daniel Malkin The strategy of industrial modernization of the IXth Plan ha.s been conceived on the basis of two complementary analyses. The first one focuses on the mutations of the world industrial. system which is in crisis since the beginning of the seventies. The second pertains to the characteristics of the evolution of the French productive System over the past fifteen years and more particidarly to its structural weaknesses which could irnpede its cornpetitiveness. On the basis of these analyses, this article describes the main economic, technological and social issues of the industrial rnodernization strategy and reviews the instruments of the French industrial policy which are implernented within the framework of the IXth Plan 1984-1988.

Social planning in the IXth plan Marie-Thérèse Join-Lambert After having defined what is called « social planning », this article offers a short historical account of the treatment of social problems in French planning and tries to show that, owing to a relatively new understanding of the links between the economic and social fields, the IXtn Plan contains, in comparison with prenions Plans, some rather important improvements in the matter of social policy. These improvements remain for the moment precarious : far they have not been indeed based upon perceptible improvements of the analysis and forecast implements. Therefore these improvements must be confirmed and made better by advancements relating to the methods of analysing social problems. The experiment of the IXth Plan, the works carried out by the Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques, by the research departments of the ministries, by research centres, would on that head induce to change to some extent the order of priorities the Commissariat General du Plan had fixed upon in the 1970s : instead of a straight search for aggregate instruments to integrate social data one would now rather put the stress on improving the gathering of ground data, which are still very lacunar in some fields, on the improvements to be made in order to know the mechanisms of social policies, on carrying out rigorous evaluation methods.

Improvements in public choice analysis Daniel Goudard This article presents the results of a group who had examine how the cost benefit analyste can take into account the macroeconomic disequilibriums and involve their resorption within the 9th Plan Strategy. Starting from a critical examination of the traditional profitability approach, the group came to the conclusion that this method had to be changea in order to take those disequilibriums into consideration. For that purpose, it has been suggested to use two sets of criteriums. One deals with the classical profitability aide. The other considers the macro­economic effects of the projects. It must be adjusted to the size and nature of the projects but is mainly set up on the evaluation of the effects without aggregation into a synthetic schedule. The paper deals also with the application of these methods and the difficultes related to the difference between financial profitability and public benefit. As far as the actualisation rate is concerned, taking into account the disequilibriums does not infirm the usual method. In 1980, a working-group concluded that it was necessary to .reduce the rate value. The analysis of the present context drives ta the same conclusion.

Tariffs and financial balance of public firms Daniel Goudard This article presents the achievements of a working-group set-up ta elaborate general rules concerning the pricing of public utilities coherent with good management of public firms in order to achiece a positive contribution ta the IXth Plans economie policy. The last ten years show that financial situation of public firms has been deteriorating although public tariffs rose up slightly faster than the average priee level. The study of specific short-term pressures on tarifs set up by public authorities shows that such rneasures are not efficient when comidering their total medium-term impacts and taking into account financial constraints. The working-party recommands to base the pricing of public utilities on the search of financial balance and, sufficient self-financing of public firms. Tins policy must be worked ont on contractual basis ensuring the consistency of govemment's actions.

The french IXth plan : from rigor to a supply policy Dominique Taddei In a first section, the « new » traditional macroeconornic policies such an the (neo) protectionism, (neo) Keynesianism, (neo) conservatism and the stop and go tactic (strategy) are shown to be ineffective in trying to solve the problems of the current crisis. The second section lists the solutions suggested by the french IXth Plan. Within the general process of a rigorous economic policy two steps are identified : a return to and a maintenance of a balanced equilibrium. The constraints imposed on this process hy the international trade and finance as well as by the domestic effective deniand are examined. Eventually, the essential role of a simply-side economics a la francaise as described by the IXth Plans is underlined, in particular its two major axes ; the renovation of the production apparatus and the reduction of hours worked.

The economic choices of IX th plan Alain Bienaymé France is reaching its IXth Plan (1984-1988) with limited elbow-room, laudable goals, new planning procedures which have aroused interest in the country : but the consistency of its fiscal and finance strategy remains hazy as well as the conditions required to make its way towards more competitivity, better equilibrium and reduced indebteness. Although.the State has created new goals (priority implemen-ting programs, plans contracts), their scope of action remain either limited or confidentiel ; any shortage of tax revenues would then either deteriorate the quality of public service or need a deep revision of the State commitments to the IXth Plan.