Contenu du sommaire : Mélanges

Educational Externalities and Intergenerational Mobility: an Application in the French Case This study deals with intergenerational mobility in France over the period 1945-1993, highlighting the role of the economy's human capital endowment. Using an overlapping-generations interwoven-generations model with heterogeneous agents, we show that the presence of diffusion effects, linked to the economy's average human capital, makes it possible to reduce inequality in human capital, even in the case of endogenous constant-rate growth. The theoretical model provides certain elements helping to explain the increase in the level of school enrolment seen in France in recent decades. Estimates on the basis of data provided by INSEE's “Formation et Qualification Professionnelle” (Training and Professional Skills) survey for1993 show that the economy's average human capital plays a significant role in the accumulation of human capital and contributes to intergenerational mobility, despite a high coefficient for the transmission of human capital between generations.

Higher education and labour markets: an econometric analysis of the “glutting” theory In many countries, the higher education and economic systems have undergone periods of expansion followed by periods of stagnation or recession. A relationship between these two indicators has therefore been assumed. Diebolt(2001) believes that the educational movements are linked to evolutions on the labour market. According to his “glutting” theory, students'career choices depend on expected earnings levels and the availability of places in the professional sector concerned. Inthis study we propose an econometric test of this theory in the case of Germany (1820-1941), using co-integration and causality. The relationships that emerge seem to confirm this theory: we find substitutability between university courses and the various professions, on the one hand, and, on the other, complementarity between the numbers of students in the universities and of posts in the corresponding professions.

Estimation of the Efficiency of Health Expenditure in the French Départements Using the DEA Method There are wide discrepancies between French départements as regards health expenditure. The problem for the public authorities is to determine whether these gaps represent differences in health and medical needs or are the consequence of inefficient management of health risks by the various participants in the health care system in certain départements. We suggest an estimation of the efficiency of health expenditure in individual départements. This measure of marginal efficiency results from a comparison of the levels of health expenditure taking into account indicators of morbidity and of the environment of each département. We use a DEA modelin order to obtain a measure of managerial efficiency that allows for exogenous features of the operating environment. Finally, we show how DEA scores can be used as a yardstick in the interregional equalisation system.

Predictability of Stock-Market Returns: an Empirical Intra-Day Study of the French Stock Market The aim of this paper is to analyse the weak-form efficiency of the French stock market, by examining whether past returns make it possible to determine future returns, taking the period from January 1999 to December 2000. We therefore concentrate on using intradaydata for an empirical examination of whether the returnson stocks in the CAC40 and MIDCAC areauto-correlated. Three tests are applied: the Box-Pierce and heteroscedasticity-adjusted Box-Pierce test, the runs test and the variance-ratio test. Our results show that it is impossible to predict future returns from past returns, which is consistent with the weak-form market efficiency hypothesis.

Structural Breakpoints on the American Equity and Bond Markets: an Empirical Proof Using the Saikkonen Method Is the sharp rise in American equity prices during the 1990s the reflection of a structural change, as has been argued by the partisans of the “new economy”, or simply a period of substantial overvaluation? Inorder to answer to this question, we adopt an original empirical approach based on recent advances in the econometrics of co-integration and structural change. This leads on to an examination of the stability of the interest-rate term structure over the period and its interactions with the stock market. The framework used is that of a vector error-correction model (VECM) with three variables: earning yield (the earnings/price ratio), bond rates and short rates. The method worked out by Saikkonen et al. makes it possible to identify possible structural breakpoints on the bond and equity markets and to capture the interdependencies between these two types of market.

Effectiveness and Limitations of a Tax on Nitrogen Fertilisers: Some Analytical Factors Derived from Sixteen European Countries In Europe, despite the mixed results obtained, it is administrative regulations that are predominantly used to control non point source nitrogen pollution. The application of other instruments, such as a tax on nitrogen fertilisers, is considered to be more effective but is controversial among economists, who disagree on the price-elasticity of demand for fertilisers and hence on the decline in volume to be expected. Such a tax has already been implemented in four European countries and it seems useful to analyse its effects by comparison with the other countries. With this in mind, after a presentation of the existing taxation experiences, the paper first provides a descriptive statistical analysis, before applying an econometric approach to determine the main factors able to explain the consumption of nitrogen fertilisers. The results show: i) the absence of any structural effect of taxation, ii) the very weak influence of the price of nitrogen fertilisers on the evolution of their consumption, relative to the influence of the prices of pesticides and of agricultural products, iii) the significant role played by the growth of yields over time, and iv) the influence of the share of ploughed area versus grassland, these two latter elements forming part of the general process of intensification in farming. This process is itself consistent with agricultural pricing policy over the period.